Gold wavers as traders weigh hopes of US rate cut, Ukraine peace

Bullion’s gains were somewhat tempered after ABC News reported that Ukrainian officials had agreed to a plan to end the war with Russia

Gold wavered, as traders weighed the growing prospect of an interest-rate cut in the US against a possible peace deal in Ukraine.

Bullion was trading around $4,135 an ounce, having ended the previous session little changed. Delayed economic data strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve will lower rates at its upcoming meeting. A modest rise in September retail sales showed that several months of robust spending have lost steam, while consumer confidence this month saw its steepest decline since April.

Reinforcing prospects for a lower-rate environment, the likely frontrunner to be the next Fed chair – White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett – is seen as someone who shares President Donald Trump’s support for cutting the cost of borrowing, Bloomberg reported. Gold typically benefits when rates are low, as it doesn’t pay interest, and swaps traders are now seeing a more-than-80% chance of a quarter-point cut in December.

The Fed’s next decision has become “the ultimate Pandora’s box for risk this year, and likely into 2026,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at Vantage Markets in Melbourne. “With no solid economic glue holding expectations together, any optimism stays fragile — and the latest swings in equities and crypto show just how quickly sentiment can flip,” she said.

Bullion’s gains were somewhat tempered after ABC News reported that Ukrainian officials had agreed to a plan to end the war with Russia. A conclusion to the protracted war would damp demand for haven assets.

Gold has consolidated above the $4,000-an-ounce threshold after retreating from last month’s peak above $4,380 an ounce. The metal — still on track for its best annual performance since 1979 — has risen more than 55% this year, boosted by central-bank purchases and strong inflows from private investors on the back of the so-called debasement trade.

Gold rose 0.1% to $4,135.73 an ounce as of 8:52 a.m. Singapore time. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat after ending the previous session 0.3% lower. Silver was down 0.2%. Platinum and palladium also fell.