Karnataka Verdict: What next for the defeated BJP unit in the state?

File image of outgoing Karnataka CM Basavaraj Bommai

Just as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was making efforts to position itself as a pan-India party, it lost Karnataka to the Congress in the legislative assembly elections.  With the morale of the state party unit running low, the question now is how the party will bounce back, that too before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections?

The BJP's worst performance was in 2013, when it won barely 40 assembly seats in the wake of BS Yediyurappa quitting the party. But this did not affect its prospects in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014.

It had won 17 of the total 28 MP seats in the state then. In 2018, the BJP won just 104 of the total 224 assembly seats. But in the 2019 LS polls, no less than 177 assembly segments gave the BJP a thumbs up, electing 25 MPs.

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But that’s history. Therefore, the immediate challenge for the BJP is to gear up for the upcoming parliamentary polls. The party wants to believe that the debacle in the assembly elections will not set the tone for the LS elections, and is drawing strength from its vote share of 36 percent in the assembly elections. It was 36.35 percent in the 2018 elections.

The vote share may be nearly intact. But the challenge is to motivate the party workers and make them work enthusiastically for the LS elections. This can be done, provided there is strong leadership at the state level. In 2013, it was BL Santhosh, the then General Secretary (Organisation) for Karnataka, who held the cadre together and helped the party bounce back.

The senior-most leaders of the party no longer occupy the front row due to the unwritten retirement policy of the party. The outgoing Chief Minister, Basavaraj Bommai, a Lingayat, failed to lead the party to victory. State BJP President Nalin Kumar Kateel, MP, has never been seen as a strong leader who is capable of bringing votes to the party. His three-year term as head ended in 2022, but he continued due to the assembly polls.

BJP leaders in the state argue that the LS elections are going to be fought under the leadership of Narendra Modi, and hence local leaders hardly matter. This is just an assumption. The party needs local leaders who can articulate the programmes implemented by the Modi government.

At present, except for Union Minister Pralhad Joshi, hardly any MP is found systematically showcasing the NDA government's work to the people.

With Yediyurappa being relegated to oblivion, there is a big question as to who would lead the party at this crucial juncture. Even senior party functionaries such as Dr Vaman Acharya have no answer to this question.

"I don’t see any senior leader who has the capacity to take up the mantle. The party has to identify 35-40 karyakartas who have a strong belief in the principles of the BJP, to rebuild the party. Their commitment to Hindutva and nationality should be unwavering, but not overly aggressive. If the party is not going to be built in such a manner, then there would be no difference between us and other parties. We need honest, committed, but politically ambitious leaders with impeccable character. They can turn around the party over a period of time. Of course, leaders can’t be manufactured overnight," Dr Acharya says.

However, MH Sreedhar, a senior party functionary, insists that there is no lack of leaders in the party. “We are a cadre-based party. The driving force for us is our organisation. The assembly poll results are a temporary setback. We will bounce back before the 2024 polls. In the 2014 and 2019 LS polls, we did well despite underperforming in the assembly polls."

Regardless of the bravado displayed by the BJP, it will have a tough task zeroing in on a dynamic leader who can instil confidence among the cadre to fight back against the Congress. The Congress has come to power by winning the trust of major as well as minor communities. It has projected itself as an inclusive party by showcasing DK Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga, Siddaramaiah, a Kuruba, and Mallikarjun Kharge, a Dalit, as its key leaders.

The BJP has to scout for capable leaders from all these major communities if it wants to spread its footprint across the state. In addition, it has to cultivate a Lingayat leader under the tutelage of Yediyurappa. Otherwise, the saffron party would be limping in Karnataka.