Karnataka Elections 2023: With most exit polls pointing to a cliffhanger contest, parties face a tense wait to May 13

Voting for the Karnataka Election 2023 was held on May 10 and the counting of votes is set to begin at 8 am on May 13.

While the pre-election surveys in Karnataka left the voters confused, the exit poll results have further confounded them. The general sense one gets from the polls is that the Congress has an edge, but this being a cliffhanger contest, many surveys have predicted a hung assembly, in which case the Janata Dal(Secular) may have a role to play in the formation of the new government.

India Today-Axis My India has given Congress a decisive victory with 122-140 seats, while the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) gets 62-80, JD(S) 20-25 and others 0-3. News 24-Today’s Chanakya has projected a seat share of 120 for Congress,  92 for BJP and 12 for JD (S).

The Post-May 13 Scenarios

While most others have predicted that the Congress will be the single largest party, they have not projected a clear simple majority. A party needs to cross the halfway mark, that is 112 seats in the 224 member assembly to form the government on its own. The results will be announced on May 13.

It appears from the exit polls that the Congress has bettered its performance in Bengaluru, Old Mysuru and North Karnataka regions.  While the BJP has taken a hit in all these areas, the biggest loser is the JD(S).

While the Congress focussed mainly on its promises to the electorate and the failures of the BJP government, the ruling party laid undue stress on emotive issues and depended heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. What this means is that while the “40 percent sarkar” campaign of the Congress against the corruption in the BJP government paid off, Modi’s high octane rallies, especially his two-day road show in Bengaluru did not have the desired impact.

While it would be premature to debate on what worked or did not work for a political party, considering that exit polls could go horribly wrong, it would be worthwhile to examine different scenarios that could emerge post the announcement of results.

The first scenario is that either the BJP or Congress will cross the halfway mark and form the government on their own. However, several possibilities could emerge in case of a hung assembly. The Congress or BJP could form the government with the support of JD(S), depending on how far or near either of them is from the finish line.

Chaotic Hung Assemblies

An analysis of how things panned out in the past, could well be an indication to what could unfold in the future. After the 2004 assembly elections, the Congress and JD(S) formed a coalition government with Dharam Singh as the Chief Minister. Siddaramaiah from JD(S) who was the Deputy Chief Minister was later expelled from the party.

However, in February 2006, JD(S) staged a coup of sorts, pulled the rug from under the Congress’s feet and formed the government with BJP’s support. HD Kumaraswamy  of JD(S) became the Chief Minister and BS Yediyurappa of BJP his deputy.  The agreement was that both parties would rule for 50 percent each of the remainder of the term of the assembly.

However, when it was BJP’s turn to rule, JD(S) reneged on its promise though Yediyurappa managed to become the Chief Minister for seven days between two spells of President’s rule and subsequent dissolution of the House.

In the 2008 elections, BJP became the single largest party with 110 seats. The shortfall was managed by poaching MLAs from other parties which came to be popularly known as Operation Kamala.

in 2013, Congress managed to secure a simple majority with Siddaramaiah becoming the Chief Minister.

Will JD(S)’s Luck Run Out?

In 2018 again, no party could muster a simple majority, though BJP was the single largest party with 104 seats, followed by Congress (80) and JD(S) 37. With a view to keeping the BJP out, the Congress extended support to JD(S) and HD Kumaraswamy became the Chief Minister though his party had secured the least number of seats. About a year later, the BJP engineered defections from Congress and JD(S), with Yediyurappa taking over as the Chief Minister, only to be subsequently replaced by Basavaraj Bommai.

If the results reflect the exit polls, it is unlikely that Kumaraswamy will be crowned the king, as it happened twice in the past though JD(S) was the junior partner. A possibility of a vertical split in the JD(S) cannot also be ruled out if it performs poorly.

The exit polls have left the people of Karnataka none the wiser and the big question remains: Who will form the government after May 13?

Gautham Machaiah is a senior journalist and political commentator based in Bengaluru. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.