Key factors behind Congress' victory in Karnataka elections

A resurgent Congress party is poised to secure a simple majority in Karnataka and is on track to wrest power from the BJP, marking a morale-boosting triumph before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections next year.

According to the latest electoral trends, the party led by M. Mallikarjun Kharge was leading in 119 constituencies, well above the required 113 seats for a majority in the 224-member House. The Karnataka Assembly elections took place on May 10.

The BJP, which won 104 seats in the previous Assembly elections, was leading in 74 segments, while the JD(S) led by former Chief Minister H.D. Deve Gowda was ahead in 24 constituencies. Other parties were leading in seven segments.

Congress is a natural choice

Governments have changed in Karnataka after every election since 1985 and so Congress is the natural choice of the voters this time.

Since 2020, 17 states went to polls (beginning and including the Bihar assembly election), of which 13 governments got re-elected. Government changed only in four states i.e. Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and most recently in Himachal Pradesh.

Of the 13 states where governments got re-elected, in ten states BJP was the ruling party either on its own or with a coalition partner.

The other three states were West Bengal, Delhi and Kerala where Trinamool Congress, AAP and LDF retained power.

Regional vs the national

The political battle in Karnataka is between the Congress, BJP and JD(S), but the electoral battle is being contested between the regional vs the national.

During the Karnataka elections, the BJP relied heavily on national narratives and leaders to create a sense of nationalistic fervor among voters. While this strategy could have played to their advantage, it may not have been as effective in capturing the subtleties of local issues and concerns.

The Congress, however, focused on regional issues and utilised local leaders to resonate better with the local population. The party's use of local leaders also helped to establish a sense of trust and familiarity with voters.

Corruption

During the election campaign, both the Congress and the BJP had raised concerns regarding corruption. The Congress had leveled allegations against the ruling BJP government, labeling it as a "40 percent commission government".

The BJP had, on the other hand, brought up former Indian Prime Minister and Congress leader Rajiv Gandhi's "85 percent commission" remark, claiming that only fifteen paise out of every rupee sent by his government reached the people.

Along with corruption, putting up a united front, the promise of free rice, power, and employment dole are among the factors that contributed to the party's good performance.