Will Salman Khan's Sikandar boost box-office sales or will it be another dull Eid?

While exhibitors are pinning their hopes on Sikandar and Salman Khan

For a Mubarak (happy) Eid, cinemas are once again counting on one of their most bankable stars--- Salman Khan.  He has delivered the most number of hits during the festive period. However, it seems to be a tall order for his upcoming release Sikandar to deliver a blockbuster, especially after a few dull Eid weekends in the past.

While India's top multiplex chain PVR Inox expects Rs 50 crore opening on March 30 when the film releases in theatres, advance bookings show otherwise.

Over 1 lakh tickets for Sikandar have been sold so far, with a pre-sale revenue of around Rs 3.3 crore. Advance sales are expected to touch Rs 15 crore, which is 50 percent of a blockbuster movie like Pushpa 2.

Advance ticket sales are not seeing significant growth due to under-whelming promotions of the movie, despite the buzz for the film, which brings the actor-director debut of Salman Khan and AR Murugadoss for the first time on the big screen. Murugadoss is known for Hindi language hits like Ghajini.

Weak response at advance booking stage

Exhibitors anticipate Sikandar to be Khan's biggest opener but the weak response at the advance booking stage is a cause of concern. The actor's last venture, Tiger 3, is his biggest opener, with opening day pre-sales of around Rs 23 crore. However, Sikandar is likely to fall short of this target. Sikandar will have a wide release, with 11,300 shows allotted so far. This is expected to touch 20,000 shows by the time the film releases.

While exhibitors are pinning their hopes on Sikandar and Salman Khan, the movie, with a budget of around Rs 200 crore, needs to gather steam during the long Eid weekend.

“A Salman Khan release is a blockbuster celebration in itself, and Sikandar is set to take it to the next level with its grand scale, high-octane action, and an emotionally charged story. With Salman returning to the big screen after a year, the anticipation is electrifying, and the trailer is already taking the internet by storm. Rashmika Mandanna’s refreshing presence adds to the film’s charm, making it a complete entertainer for all audiences. Following Pushpa 2: The Rule and Chhaava, Sikandar is poised to be yet another consecutive hit for Bollywood’s new favourite, Rashmika,” said Gautam Dutta, CEO, Revenue and Operations, PVR Inox.

Not only is Khan coming to the big screen after a year-long hiatus, but it has been seven years since the superstar delivered a hit on Eid, after the 2016 movie Sultan.

More misses than hits

Not just Salman Khan, it has been a dry spell for Hindi movies at the box office, with more misses than hits. The Vicky Kaushal-starrer Chhaava turned out to be a blockbuster with over Rs 580 crore. Owing to Chhaava's performance, Hindi language share jumped to 45 percent in February as compared to 40 percent in 2024, according to media consulting firm Ormax analysis.

The box office for the first two months of 2025 stands at Rs 2,264 crore, 39 percent higher than the same period in 2024. Last month turned out to be the highest-grossing February, post-pandemic, Ormax noted.

However, poor performance of large budget Hindi films, as well as some south Indian films, led to a drop in overall box-office collections. A fewer number of hits drove a larger proportion of revenues, with over 70 percent of total box office earnings being delivered by just the top 10 films, a recently released Ficci-EY report on the entertainment industry noted. The trend is clear: either a film is hugely successful at the theater, or it tends to completely under-perform.

The film segment's revenues dropped 5 percent to Rs 18,700 crore last year from Rs 19,700 crore in 2023, the report added.

'Pan-Indian film is here to stay'

Last year, south Indian films led monetisation at the box office, while Malayalam theatrical revenues grew 104 percent. This Eid weekend also, a Malayalam-language film is driving the box office. Actor Mohanlal and Prithviraj's L2: Empuraan, released on March 27, has delivered the biggest Malayalam opening, post-Covid, collecting an estimated Rs 24 crore on day one. Prithviraj's The GOAT Life, with around Rs 7.5 crore, was the biggest Malayalam opener, post-Covid.

“The excitement surrounding L2: Empuraan is truly extraordinary with 1.23 lakh tickets sold for the opening day and 2.35 lakh for the weekend. The franchise holds a special place in the hearts of audiences, and the response to this sequel reflects not just anticipation, but an emotional investment built over time," Dutta said.

He added, "The scale of Empuraan’s release across Malayalam, Tamil, Telugu, and Hindi speaks of its wider appeal. Fans have been counting down to this moment, engaging deeply with every update, making this more than just a film release—it’s a cinematic event. Theatres across key markets are witnessing tremendous enthusiasm, and the energy surrounding the film is only growing as we approach its debut."

The pan-Indian film is now established, and is attracting audiences across Hindi, Tamil and Telugu markets. Of the top 10 movies that crossed the Rs 100-crore mark, four were in Hindi, and the remaining six were in south Indian languages, including their dubbed versions, the report noted.

While the struggle continues especially for Hindi films, 2025 is expected to turn the tables as more star-led movies, which were missing last year, are expected this year, with the first one being Salman Khan-starrer Sikandar this Eid.

The film segment's revenue is estimated to grow to Rs 19,600 crore this year from Rs 18,700 crore in 2024. However, it will still be marginally lower than 2023 revenues.

It is also expected that the base of moviegoers will increase from under 10 crore to 12 crore by 2027, on the back of continued growth in per capita disposable income and growth in affluent households, the report noted.