Modi hat-trick or a twist in the tale? Billions await verdict of Lok Sabha polls on June 4

The results for the 7-phase Lok Sabha elections will be declared on June 4

More than a billion people will keenly watch as the final stage of the two-and-a-half-month-long Lok Sabha elections unfolds on June 4, their collective aspirations hinging on the outcome of the vote count in the world’s largest democracy.

The counting will begin at 8 am across the country, and the initial trends, based on postal ballot votes, will trickle in shortly after that. By evening, a clear picture of who will form the new government is likely to emerge, shaping the trajectory of India’s growth story for the next five years.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi expects to retain power for a third successive term and is confident that his Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will secure a record number of seats in the Lok Sabha polls.

The anticipated NDA victory will not only redefine records for BJP but also elevate PM Modi to the ranks of leaders whose popularity has endured the test of time.

On the other hand, the INDIA opposition alliance aims to upset Modi’s political dominance by challenging the BJP and its allies.

Exit polls predict Modi hat-trick

Two days before the counting of votes, several pollsters on June 1 unanimously predicted a thumping victory for the BJP-led coalition in the general election.

According to a poll of nine exit polls, the NDA is set to win over 350 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. Notably, three pollsters forecast nearly 400 seats for the BJP-led alliance, aligning with the ambitious target set by PM Modi. In 2019, NDA won 353 seats.

Meanwhile, exit polls predicted just 143 seats for the INDIA bloc, which also includes Congress.

News18’s mega exit poll predicted 355-370 seats for the BJP-led NDA and 125-140 for the INDIA bloc. For BJP, it has predicted 303-315 seats.

In 2014, the BJP came to power after winning 282 seats. It improved its tally to 303 in the 2019 elections. If the exit poll predictions hold true this time, the party will surpass its previous election tally yet again—a performance that will dispel talks of anti-incumbency.

Interestingly, exit polls predicted crucial gains for the BJP in the southern and coastal states. According to several pollsters, the BJP is set to take pole position in Odisha and West Bengal, win its maiden seat in Kerala, and scoop up victories in Tamil Nadu.

Exit polls drive market rally

The exit poll prediction of a decisive Modi victory propelled benchmarks Nifty and Sensex to new highs on June 3.

The broader Nifty hit an all-time high of 23,338 while the BSE Sensex touched a fresh peak of 76,738. At close, the Sensex was up 2,507 points or 3.4 percent at 76,468, and the Nifty 50 was up 733 points or 3.3 percent at 23,263.

Market experts said a landslide win for PM Modi is expected to boost Indian stocks. Investors anticipate continuity in pro-business policies, economic reforms and stable governance, which are likely to boost market confidence and attract foreign investments.

Political stability can boost stock prices and bolster the rupee, while the bond markets may benefit from improved investor sentiment.

However, experts have predicted a significant market correction in the unlikely scenario of the BJP losing the elections or winning with a much-reduced majority.

Renowned market strategist Chris Wood said that stock markets could witness a correction of up to 25 percent if Modi fails to retain power.

However, investors are positive about PM Modi’s victory, especially after the exit poll predictions.

Market veterans such as Kotak AMC’s Nilesh Shah and Sushil Kedia have hinted at a short-term rally after June 4, after the declaration of election results.

Kedia said that the poll verdict could be better than the predictions and that markets will see an “explosion” with just about all stocks rallying. Shah said that the immediate reaction in the share market is expected to be positive, though a circuit up on Monday or Tuesday seems unlikely.

Keep an eye on these big battles

Nearly 8,400 candidates contested the mammoth Lok Sabha election, which spanned six weeks. On June 4, all eyes will be on the constituencies where the bigwigs are competing. Here are the key seats to watch during the counting on Tuesday:

PM Modi (BJP) | Varanasi: The Prime Minister is eyeing a third straight term from his stronghold. Ground reports say that a victory for PM is a foregone conclusion, and all debate is on the margin of victory.

Amit Shah (BJP) | Gandhinagar: The BJP heavyweight and home minister is looking to retain his seat in Gujarat for the second straight term. He is targeting a victory by a margin of 10 lakh votes.

Rahul Gandhi (Congress) | Rae Bareli & Wayanad: Like 2019, he is again contesting from two seats. However, he picked family bastion Rae Bareli over his erstwhile stronghold Amethi, from where he lost in 2019.

Smriti Irani (BJP) | Amethi: Irani seeks to defend the seat she famously won from Rahul Gandhi in 2019. She is facing Congress’s KL Sharma.

HD Kumaraswamy (JDS) | Mandya: The former Karnataka CM is battling to gain a strong foothold for his party. The contest is seen as a battle for survival.

Supriya Sule (NCP [SC]) | Baramati: NCP leader Sule aims to retain her family stronghold amidst tough competition from her own sister-in-law Sunetra Pawar.

Asaddudin Owaisi (AIMIM) | Hyderabad: Owaisi is focused on maintaining his dominance in this key constituency, from where he has been winning since 2004. He is up against BJP’s fiery leader Madhavi Latha.

K Annamalai (BJP) | Coimbatore: The BJP state president is working to secure a significant win in Tamil Nadu and help the party make crucial inroads in the southern state.

Shashi Tharoor (Congress) | Thiruvananthapuram: Tharoor is defending his seat while pushing for Congress gains in Kerala. It’s a heavyweight clash since he is facing BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar.

Akhilesh Yadav (SP) | Kannauj: The SP chief is seeking to reclaim his party’s influence in this SP stronghold.

Piyush Goyal (BJP) | Mumbai North: The Union minister is looking to strengthen BJP’s presence in this metropolitan constituency as he seeks to win his maiden Lok Sabha contest.

Nitin Gadkari (BJP) | Nagpur: Gadkari is looking to retain his stronghold and is confident he will win by a record margin.

Kangana Ranaut (BJP) | Mandi: The fiery actor-turned-politician is taking on Congress candidate and scion of Rampur royal family Vikramaditya Singh.

Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury (Congress) | Berhampore: The Congress leader faces a stiff challenge from TMC candidate and former cricketer Yusuf Pathan.

Jyotiradiya Scindia (BJP) | Guna: The royal scion is hoping to retain his family bastion, which he lost to BJP as a Congress candidate in 2019.

Omar Abdullah (NC) | Baramullah: The former J&K chief minister is locked in a high-stakes clash with Peoples Conference’s Sajad Lone.

Kanhaiya Kumar (Congress) | Northeast Delhi: The former student leader is striving to make a mark in a fierce contest with incumbent Manoj Tiwari of BJP.

Rajnath Singh (BJP) | Lucknow: The defence minister is working to maintain his hold on this prestigious seat of Uttar Pradesh, which was once held by former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Manish Tewari (Congress) | Chandigarh: The Congress leader is challenging BJP’s dominance as he battles to regain ground in the Union Territory.