BJP's expected gains and losses: Detailed state-wise comparison of News18 exit poll with Lok Sabha 2019 results

Exit polls have unanimously predicted a third term for PM Modi

The News18 Mega Exit Poll 2024 predicted that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to increase its overall seat count and vote share compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha results. The exit poll indicates the BJP is likely to secure between 305 and 315 seats out of a total of 543 seats (All India), with a 40% vote share, the NDA is expected to win 355 to 370 seats with a 47% vote share. This marks an improvement from the 2019 results, where the BJP won 303 seats with a 37.36% vote share and the NDA secured 353 seats with a 45% vote share.

It exit poll predicted that while the BJP is expected to make significant gains in several states, it may face losses in a few others.

Significant gains are expected in states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Odisha. In West Bengal, a state where the BJP has been steadily gaining ground, the party is projected to further strengthen its position, potentially securing 21-24 seats. In Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, traditionally challenging territories for the BJP, the party is expected to make substantial inroads, winning 4-6 seats in Andhra Pradesh, 1-3 seats in Tamil Nadu as part of the AIADMK+ alliance, and 1-3 seats in Kerala.

Meanwhile, notable losses are projected in Haryana and Rajasthan. In Haryana, the NDA's projected win of 5-7 seats signals a decline from the BJP's previous 10-seat victory in 2019, potentially indicating setbacks for the party's dominance in the state. And, in Rajasthan, the BJP's anticipated seat count of 18-23 represents a decrease from its 2019 performance of securing 24 seats, suggesting potential losses for the party in the state.

Overall, the party is projected to solidify its position as a dominant force in Indian politics.

Telangana: Substantial Gains Total seats: 17

In Telangana, the BJP is projected to win 7-10 seats with a 37% vote share, a significant improvement from the 4 seats and 19.45% vote share it achieved in 2019.

Karnataka: Retaining Dominance Total seats: 28

In Karnataka, the BJP is projected to win 21-24 seats, slightly fewer than the 25 seats it won in 2019. Despite a minor decline, the BJP continues to maintain a dominant position in the state. The NDA is expected to secure 23-26 seats.

Tamil Nadu: Gaining Foothold Total seats: 39

The BJP is projected to win 1-3 seats in Tamil Nadu as part of the AIADMK+ alliance, which is expected to secure a 17% vote share. This is a significant improvement from the 0 seats and 3.66% vote share in 2019, indicating that the BJP's alliance strategy is beginning to bear fruit in the Dravidian heartland.

Andhra Pradesh: Emergent Force Total seats: 25

The BJP is expected to secure 4-6 seats in Andhra Pradesh, a state where it won no seats and had a meager 0.96% vote share in 2019. The NDA, including BJP, is projected to win 19-22 seats with a 61% vote share, indicating a substantial political shift in the state, largely benefitting from the decline of regional party YSRCP.

Kerala: Making Inroads Total seats: 20

In Kerala, the BJP is expected to win 1-3 seats with a 16% vote share, compared to no seats and a 12.93% vote share in 2019. This suggests that the BJP is making inroads in a state traditionally dominated by the Left and the Congress.

Odisha: Significant Gains Total seats: 21

The BJP is expected to win 13-15 seats in Odisha with a 40% vote share, compared to 8 seats and a 38.37% vote share in 2019. This represents a significant gain, reflecting increased support for the BJP in the state.

West Bengal: Strengthening Position Total seats: 42

The BJP is projected to win 21-24 seats in West Bengal with a 43% vote share, up from 18 seats and a 40.25% vote share in 2019. This indicates a strengthening of the BJP's position in a state where it has been rapidly expanding its influence.

Assam: Strengthening Grip Total seats: 14

In Assam, the NDA is projected to win 10-13 seats, up from the 9 seats the BJP won in 2019. This indicates a strengthening grip for the BJP and its allies in the northeastern state.

Punjab: Modest Gains Total seats: 13

In Punjab, the BJP is projected to win 2-4 seats, slightly improving from the 2 seats it won in 2019. This indicates a modest gain for the party in the state.

Uttar Pradesh: Continued Stronghold Total seats: 80

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP is projected to win 64-67 seats, with the NDA securing 68-71 seats, up from 62 seats in 2019. This reinforces the BJP's stronghold in India's most populous state.

Chhattisgarh: Consistent Performance Total seats: 11

The BJP is expected to win 9-11 seats in Chhattisgarh, maintaining its 2019 performance where it won 9 seats. This reflects consistent support for the BJP in the state.

Madhya Pradesh: Stable Presence Total seats: 29

The BJP is projected to win 26-29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, compared to 28 seats in 2019. This suggests a stable presence for the BJP in the state.

Delhi: Strong Retention Total seats: 7

The BJP is expected to win 5-7 seats in Delhi, compared to the 7 seats it won in 2019. This suggests a strong retention of its position in the national capital.

Gujarat: Strong Hold Total seats: 26

The BJP is expected to win all 26 seats in Gujarat, replicating its 2019 performance. This indicates a strong hold for the BJP in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state.

Haryana: Potential Setbacks Total seats: 10

In Haryana, the NDA is projected to win 5-7 seats, a decrease from the 10 seats the BJP won in 2019. This suggests potential setbacks for the BJP in a state where it previously dominated.

Rajasthan: Potential Losses Total seats: 25

In Rajasthan, the BJP is expected to win 18-23 seats, a decrease from the 24 seats it won in 2019. This indicates potential losses for the BJP in the state.

Bihar: Modest Decline Total seats: 40

The BJP is expected to win 13-16 seats in Bihar, with the NDA securing 31-34 seats. This is a slight decline from the 17 seats the BJP won in 2019, though the NDA's overall performance remains strong.

Jharkhand: Modest Decline Total seats: 14

The NDA is projected to win 9-12 seats in Jharkhand, compared to the 11 seats the BJP won in 2019. This indicates a modest decline for the BJP in the state.

Maharashtra: Potential Decline Total seats: 48

The BJP is projected to win 20-23 seats in Maharashtra, with the NDA securing 32-35 seats, compared to the 23 seats the BJP won in 2019. This suggests a potential decline for the BJP, though the NDA remains strong.