Maharashtra Lok Sabha election: Will VBA again dent electoral prospects of Congress-NCP?

Amidst Maharashtra's electoral fervor, the question arises: Will Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi's (VBA) influence pose a challenge to Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), akin to 2019? The absence of an alliance raises concerns.

Amidst the electoral fervour in Maharashtra, a pertinent question echoes across the political landscape: will the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) wield its influence to dent the electoral prospects of Maha Vikas Aghadi's (MVA), akin to the challenge witnessed in 2019? The absence of an alliance between the VBA and the MVA—comprising the Shiv Sena (Thackeray), Congress, and NCP (Sharad)—raises eyebrows, reminiscent of the scenario preceding the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The failure to forge an alliance in both instances has significant implications for the electoral dynamics.

Led by Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar, the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi endeavours to carve a niche among the marginalized sections of society, espousing the ideologies of Ambedkar and Phule. With aspirations to dislodge the BJP from the Centre, the party is contesting in 35 out of Maharashtra's 48 Lok Sabha seats.

The genesis of the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi dates back to 2018, and it made its electoral debut in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, forming an alliance with the All India Majlis Ittehadul Musalmen (AIMIM). This alliance, focusing on Dalit and Muslim voter base, posed a formidable challenge to traditional players like the Congress and NCP.

The aftermath of the 2019 elections saw the Congress-NCP alliance reeling from the impact of divided Dalit and Muslim votes, leading to substantial losses. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance got 41 seats, while NCP got 5 and Congress just one.

Owaisi’s party AIMIM won the one seat of Aurangabad where it had fielded its candidate. The VBA could not win a single seat, but in many constituencies the Congress and NCP had to face defeat due to its candidates. The VBA candidates were second or third in many seats.

There were 17 seats where its candidates secured more than 80,000 votes. VBA became the fifth largest party in the state, securing 14 per cent of the total votes. It had fielded candidates in 234 out of 288 total seats in the Vidhan Sabha polls but could not win even one.

Vanchit was also accused by Congress and NCP leaders of being the B team of the BJP and taking contract from the BJP to defeat the Congress-NCP alliance.

Uddhav Thackeray had sensed last year that the VBA with the election symbol of gas cylinder could make the situation explosive for the MVA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Hence, he took the initiative to end Ambedkar's acrimony with the Congress-NCP and convinced Ambedkar to come join the MVA. Prakash Ambedkar and his representatives also participated in the recent seat-sharing meetings but concensus could not be reached.

In the coalition, the VBA was offered only 2 to 3 seats but Ambedkar wanted more seats. Apart from this, he had also put many conditions which were not acceptable to the other constituent parties.

Ambedkar eventually parted ways and announced his candidates, though there are five seats, including Nagpur, Amravati and Kolhapur, on which the VBA has supported the MVA.

The VBA’s refusal to align with the Maha Vikas Aghadi in the upcoming elections has added to the woes of the latter, already grappling with internal dissent and defections.

As Maharashtra braces itself for another electoral showdown, the trajectory of the VBA and its impact on the political equation remains a focal point of speculation, with implications extending far beyond the confines of the state. The BJP is finding the situation advantageous.

(J Kumar is a journalist and a political commentator based in Mumbai)