Lok Sabha elections: Why BJP has an upper hand in Coastal Karnataka

With elections coming closer, the BJP clearly has the upper hand in Coastal Karnataka

Over the last two decades, the BJP has maintained a firm grip over the three seats that make up Coastal Karnataka. Towards the southern tip of the coastline, in Dakshina Kannada, the BJP has not lost a Lok Sabha election since 1991. In Uttara Kannada, the BJP has held the seat since 2004, with Ananthkumar Hegde being elected for three consecutive terms. Since delimitation and the formation of the Udupi-Chikkamagaluru seat, the BJP has had the upper hand. The party’s only defeat came in the 2012 by-elections. In no uncertain terms, when it comes to Lok Sabha elections, this region is a BJP bastion. Will the BJP continue to maintain this domination over this region in 2024? Or can the Congress spring a surprise?

In 2019, all the three of the BJP’s candidates won the elections with fairly comfortable margins. In Udupi-Chikkamagalur, the BJP’s Shobha Karandlaje defeated the Congress candidate by a margin of 3 lakh votes. In Uttara Kannada, Anantkumar Hegde’s victory margin stretched to over 3.5 lakh votes. In Dakshina Kannada, Naleen Kumar Kateel’s victory margin was over 2.5 lakh votes. Despite the stunning victories in 2019, the party dropped their sitting MP in all three seats. Even the Congress has fielded new candidates in Uttara Kannada and Dakshina Kannada. In Udupi-Chikkamagalur, the Congress has fielded Jayaprakash Hedge. Though the Congress did not field a candidate in 2019 (it was in an alliance with the JDS), Jayaprakash Hegde was the Congress candidate in 2014 and 2009. He was won the by-elections in 2012.

Of the three constituencies, Dakshina Kannada is a seat where both the parties have put up fresh faces. The BJP candidate, Captain Brijesh Chowta was formerly associated with the Bharitya Janata Yuva Morcha (BJYM) before being appointed as the BJP State Secretary for Karnataka. Padmaraj, the Congress’ candidate is also a new entrant, who is a practicing lawyer and is the Karnataka Congress State Secretary. In Uttara Kannada and Udupi-Chikkamagalur, though the BJP has dropped sitting MPs, the new candidates are not political newbies. In Udupi-Chikkamagalur, Kota Srinivasa Poojari is a veteran leader who a Minister with important portfolios in the Bommai government. Similarly in Uttara Kannada, Vishweshwar Hedge is a six term MLA, and the former Speaker of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly between 2019 and 2023. All three candidates closely associated with the frontal organisations of the party.

There are two issues that are working for the BJP in the coastal region. First, is the strong popularity of the Prime Minister. This is something the party is trying to capitalize on. On the 14th of April, the Prime Minister has planned a major roadshow in Mangalore City, the capital of Dakshina Kannada district. The party cadres and the grassroots network grassroots network appears to be energized by PM Modi’s forthcoming visit. This would defiantly add to the BJP’s momentum as the campaign reaches the final phase. Secondly, by fielding new candidates and dropping sitting MPs, the party has tired to address any local level anti-incumbency against them. In Dakshina Kannada for example, there were certain signs that Naleen Kumar Kateel did not enjoy the complete confidence of the local   party workers. In July 2022, following the murder of a BJP Yuva Morcha Worker, Praveen Nettaru, local cadres blocked Kateel’s car and prevented him from visiting Praveen Nettaru’s family members. Importantly, despite the change of guard, the local level BJP leadership is putting up a united front. This could come as a major relief to the BJP, given the visible infighting in other regions of the state.

The Congress is in a difficult position across Coastal Karnataka. One of the most important issues, is the absence of any strong local leaders. Its Dakshina Kannada party’s district in-charge, Dinesh Gundu Rao, hails from the neighbouring district of Coorg and has built his entire political career outside the region in Bengaluru city. One of the Congress’ senior most leaders from the Coastal region, U.T. Kader, is currently the speaker of the Legislative Assembly and has not actively taken part in the campaign. In Uttara Kannada, the Congress’ candidate Anjali Nimbalkar hails from the neighbouring district of Belagavi. This absence of a strong leadership is a complete departure from the past when Congress boasted of leaders like Oscar Fernandes, Veerappa Moily, Janardana Poojary and Margret Alva -  all of whom had their political base in Coastal Karnataka. The Congress also appears to be lacking a broader strategy. In 2019, the party’s candidate from Dakshina Kannada Mithun Rai raised the ‘soft Hindutva’ slogan, a strategy which went on to fail. This time around, the Congress appears to be carrying forward the same blueprint. D.K. Shivakumar on a recent visit to Dakshina Kannada planned a much-publicized visits to several temples. Similarly, when Padmaraj was announced as the Congress candidate for Dakshina Kannada, the party started a procession from the Gokarnatheshwara Temple.  If ‘soft Hindutva’ is indeed the blueprint this time around, it is unlikely to deliver any political dividends.

With elections coming closer, the BJP clearly has the upper hand in Coastal Karnataka. The momentum is only going to increase with the Prime Minister’s visit to Mangalore city. The Congress has its work cut out if it has to have any hope of challenging the BJP. The party will need to focus more attention on the Coastal Belt. Its state and central leaders would need to increase their presence in the region during the campaign. Finally, the party needs to groom local leadership for a sustained and long term benefit in the region.