Lok Sabha elections: Old Mysore Region is JDS’ battle for survival & an opportunity for Congress

While JDS leader HD Kumaraswamy (L) is contesting from Mandya, Karnataka CM and Congress leader Siddaramaiah is personally involved with the Mysore and Chamarajanagar campaigns. (Courtesy: ANI)

The Old Mysore region is the Vokkaliga heartland and parts of it have been the traditional bastion of the JDS. The Gowda family has a strong support base in the Vokkaliga belt in this area. The Mandya and Hassan Lok Sabha seats have been a mainstay of the Gowda family’s fortunes in the Lok Sabha. In particular, the Hassan seat has been with the JDS since 2004. Similarly, the JDS had held on to Mandya between 2009 and 2019 (the party lost a by-election in 2013). In 2019, they lost the seat to an independent candidate supported by the BJP. The BJP and Congress have had better returns in the Chamarajanagar and Mysore seats. The BJP’s Pratap Simha won the Mysore seat in 2014 and 2019. In Chamarajanagar, BJP candidate V Srinivas Prasad defeated the two-time Congress candidate in 2019. This was also the BJP’s first victory in the Chamarajanagar Lok Sabha seat. It is also important to record that the BJP winner in 2019 (Srinivas Prasad) had been a many terms Congress MP from this seat. Can the JDS in alliance with the BJP hold on to Hassan and win back Mandya and retain Kolar for the NDA Alliance, this time around? Can the Congress reverse its fortunes in Mysore, Tumkur, Kolar and Chamarajanagar? These are the two important questions to look at this time around.

For the JDS, these elections are a battle for survival. The Gowda family has a lot at stake in Hassan and Mandya. H.D. Kumaraswamy himself is contesting from Mandya. This is a seat the party lost in 2019. Nikhil Kumaraswamy, the son of H.D. Kumaraswamy lost to Sumalatha Ambareesh, the wife of late Kannada actor Ambareesh. Though she contested as an independent candidate, she had the tacit support of the BJP. Hassan had been the home turf of the JDS patriarch Deve Gowda until he vacated the seat in 2019 in favour of his grandson, Prajwal Revanna.  The JDS held onto the seat in 2019 with a comfortable majority, endorsing in some ways, the change of guard.

Winning back the Mandya seat is definitely one of the primary goals of the JDS. H.D. Kumaraswamy, at a rally near Mandya town described this as a battle for ‘self-respect’. In Mandya, the JDS is clearly banking on three important factors to turn the tide in its favour. First, the return of Kumaraswamy himself. Despite the weakness of JDS as a party, Kumaraswamy remains a popular face on the ground, particularly amongst the Vokkaliga voters in Mysore-Mandya region. Secondly, the alliance with the BJP is an important point of difference in 2024. In 2019, the BJP actively supported Sumalatha Ambareesh. This was a major contributing factor to her victory. Now, in alliance with the BJP, the JDS would be hoping that the BJP votes are transferred and would ultimately benefit the party. Also, Sumalatha has agreed to back the JDS candidate. Thirdly, the repeated mention of the Cauvery issue in Kumaraswamy’s speeches indicates that it is a key campaign narrative. This does not come as a surprise as the Cauvery dispute with Tamil Nadu is a very emotive issue in the Mysore-Mandya belt. When the dispute flared up in late September last year, protests were concentrated around this region.

Mysore and Chamarajanagar will see a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. Despite BJP winning both seats in 2019, the sitting MPs in Mysore and Chamarajanagar have been dropped (Chamarajanagar candidate announced his retirement). In Mysore, the party has fielded Yaduveer Wadiyar, a member of the erstwhile Mysore Royal Family. In Chamarajanagar, the BJP has fielded S Balaraju, someone who has spent time in both the BJP and the Congress. A key concern for the BJP would be to manage the fallout of replacing two sitting MPs’ tickets. In Mysore, there were reports of disgruntled Pratap Simha supporters trying to organize protests. Though Pratap Simha has thrown his weight behind the BJP, he also took a subtle dig at Yaduveer Wadiyar, suggesting that the ‘maharaja will have to work with the common people’. In Chamarajanagar, the sitting BJP MP Srinivas Prasad lobbied for his one of his sons-in-law to be given the ticket, after he announced his political retirement. The BJP did not give into his demand.

For the Congress, Siddaramaiah has personally put in significant efforts to shore up the its chances in both Mysore and Chamarajanagar. In Mysore, the Congress is clearly banking on caste calculations to go in its favour. Its candidate, M. Lakshman is a Vokkaliga and this has been highlighted on several occasions. At a campaign rally in Mysore, Siddaramaiah vociferously argued that Lakshman was ‘born a Vokkaliga’. By putting up a Vokkaliga candidate, the Congress would be hoping to make further inroads into the JDS’ Vokkaliga vote base. This is something that they had achieved with some success during the 2023 state assembly elections.

Kolar and Tumkur are two other seats in the region to keep a close eye on. Kolar was assigned to the JDS at the last minute. This seat has been a long time Congress bastion but was won by the BJP the last time around. The BJP decided to concede this seat to the JDS. There is unhappiness within the BJP on this decision. The Congress has its share of infighting at the time of the declaration of the candidate. The contest is being keenly watched.

Tumkur is an interesting seat, which saw a JDS vs BJP contest in 2019. The BJP candidate defeated Deve Gowda by a margin of around 16,000 votes. This time around, the BJP-JDS combination would be hoping for the Vokkaliga and Lingayat vote to unify in favour of V Somanna, the BJP candidate. If this does happen, it could give the alliance a substantial edge over the Congress.

As election day comes closer, the Old-Mysore region is going to witness some crucial battles. For the JDS, winning back Mandya is going to be a top priority. Along with Hasan, these two seats are the electoral bastions of the Gowda family.  It needs to retain the Kolar seat for the NDA too. The party’s future and electoral relevance hinges on them being able to win these seats. Meanwhile, the BJP and Congress will battle it out in a direct faceoff, in Mysore and Chamarajanagar. While the 2019 results suggest that the momentum is with the BJP, the Congress is putting in every effort to reverse the tide. With Siddaramaiah personally involved with the Mysore and Chamarajanagar campaigns, prospects are that this is going to be close battle.