Congress revival puts breaks on BJP's southern expansion dream

BJP was hoping to expand its seat tally in south in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls

The southern expansion goal of BJP suffered a big blow on Tuesday with a resurgent Congress boosting its seat tally in states like Karnataka and Telangana.

The five southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Kerala together make up 131 seats in Lok Sabha.

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The INDIA bloc is set to win 77 of these seats while BJP-led NDA may bag 51.

Individually, Congress is now the single largest party in the south with leads in 42 seats while BJP is ahead in 29 seats.

In 2019, the BJP emerged as the single largest party in the southern states despite winning only 30 seats due to the fragmentation of votes caused by the dominance of regional players.

While BJP has not seen a major depletion in its seat share in 2024 either, the party has failed to register the big gains it was expecting, especially after its aggressive push in the region.

This was because Congress scripted a revival in Karnataka and Telangana. In Karnataka, the party added 8 seats to its tally while in Telangana it increased its seat share by 5.

Meanwhile, BJP has not been able to win a single seat in Tamil Nadu, a state where it was hoping to make crucial breakthroughs this year. This is a personal setback for TN BJP chief K Annamalai, who was himself contesting from Coimbatore and failed to win the seat.

In Kerala, the BJP may register its maiden victory with its candidate Suresh Gopi defeating its CPI rival from Thrissur.

Similarly, BJP is making crucial inroads in the Telugu states. In Andhra Pradesh, it is expected to win 4 seats this time compared to 0 in 2019. In Telangana too, BJP has boosted its tally to 8 in 2024 from 4 in 2019.

However, the major losses for BJP came in Karnataka where the party saw an erosion of 8 seats this year. It's on course to winning 17 seats, compared to 25 in the previous election.