Cliffhanger in Bihar? Survey shows NDA edge, but Mahagathbandhan still holding ground

The upcoming Bihar Assembly elections appear poised to be decided by traditional factors of caste arithmetic, alliance management, and targeted welfare delivery rather than transformative political realignment, signaling continuity in traditional voting patterns despite Prashant Kishor's entry introducing some element of unpredictability, a new survey in the poll-bound state has found.

The Ascendia 'Battle of Bihar 2025' survey conducted across all administrative zones in the poll-bound state showed a continuation of the traditional bifurcation of the political landscape between the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) led by Tejashwi Yadav and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Nitish Kumar, with established vote banks showing limited mobility.

Traditional fear factors continue to influence core voter decisions, maintaining rigid
voting patterns that have characterised Bihar politics for decades, the on-ground assessment carried out across 18 districts and all nine administrative units has found.

While Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraj Party (JSP) has emerged as a third pole, his influence appears more pronounced in South Bihar compared to North Bihar, suggesting regional variations in his political appeal and organisational reach.

Muslim-Yadav Dynamics

The Muslim community (17% population) has traditionally has backed the MGB in Bihar. In 2020, a section of Muslims backed the AIMIM in Seemanchal (Muslim population around 50%), denting its prospects in a close contest. As many as 75% of the Muslim community backed the MGB in 2020, 17% backed AIMIM. This increased to 83% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as a section of the community realised that the AIMIM split votes and helped the BJP.

As per the survey, the Muslim community is cautious this time and a large proportion is likely
to back the MGB as it did in the Lok Sabha. However, all is not well within the community with some members expressing dissatisfaction with the recent Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi's 'Voter Adhikar Yatra', citing inadequate representation of prominent Muslim leaders on the campaign
vehicle.

The survey concluded that this dissatisfaction could cause some damage to the MGB's prospects, particularly in the Seemanchal region, unless the Opposition alliance moves quickly to assuage their concerns. Muslims have also been demanding higher representation in terms of tickets as well as a Deputy CM seat.

Part of it aligns with the point of proportional representation of the Muslim community in the Assembly and as candidates that Prashant Kishor has proposed. Yet, the survey found growing skepticism about Prashant Kishor among Muslim voters, with many expressing reluctance to support him this election cycle.

Concerns about his funding sources and allegations of being a BJP proxy continue to circulate within the community. They also cite JSP's role in by-elections where MGB, which won 3 of 4 seats in 2020, lost them all in 2024.

The Dalit and EBC Vote

The Dalits, or Scheduled Caste community, constitute around 20% of the state's population with the NDA holding an advantage over the Mahagathbandhan. Among the three main influential sub-caste groups amongst Dalits -- Chamar (5%), Paswan (5%), and Musahar (3%) -- the latter two communities are likely to back the NDA since Chirag Paswan of LJP hails from the Paswan community, and Jiten Ram Manjhi from HAM hails from the Musahar community, both part of the NDA.

On the other hand, the Chamar community is more inclined toward the MGB, largely driven by anti-Paswan sentiment that has historical roots in Bihar's complex caste dynamics. According to the survey, there is an emerging interest in Chandrashekhar Ravan's Azad Samaj
Party of UP among Dalit youth, indicating potential fragmentation of traditional Dalit voting patterns.

Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), accounting for 26% of the state's population have traditionally backed the NDA in Bihar and are likely to continue the same way this election as well, unless the MGB manages to swing their vote by a significant increase in their representation in tickets.

OBC votes: The Divide Continues

There is a clear visible divide in the Other Backward Classes voters, who account for 25% of the state's population, with Yadavs strongly behind the RJD and non-Yadav OBCs firmly behind the NDA. The Yadav OBCs (11%) have traditionally backed the Lalu family.

On the other hand, the Koeri-Kurmi (Kushwaha) population, accounting for 7%, has backed the NDA. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar belongs to the Kurmi community while Deputy CM Samrat Chaudhary and RLM's Upendra Kushwaha hail from the Kushwaha community. The survey, however, cautions that the Kushwaha community may gravitate towards the MGB as it did in the Lok Sabha elections as well as in Uttar Pradesh.

Who is leading where?

There are nine administrative zones in Bihar -- Tirhut, Darbhanga, Saran, Kosi, Purnia, Magadh, Munger, Patna, and Bhagalpur. The survey has added another region of Bhojpur. Of the 10 identified regions, the survey shows the Mahagathbandhan losing a few seats in Magadh and Bhojpur with some gains likely in Purnia.

In the 2020 polls, the NDA led in 7 zones while MGB led in 3. In the 7 zones, NDA led by 52 seats, while in the 3 zones, MGB led by 37 seats, resulting in a net lead of 15 seats for the NDA. The NDA pocketed 125 seats while the MGB ended at 110 seats.

Bihar elections are slated to be held in November this year with the announcement of polls expected in the first week of October. The term of the current Assembly ends on November 22.