MARKETS
What to expect from third quarter results
Earnings growth without a growth in sales or volumes tends to run out of steam quickly. Thus, the key things to monitor would be is the growth in sales and volumes better than Q2 and what managements are guiding for the next few quarters.
ECONOMY
High retail inflation: RBI must not increase target band and add fuel to fire
Policy flip-flops should be avoided. The new framework should be given time.
BUSINESS
Oil prices on a knife-edge. Which way will they turn?
It boils down to a question of how much supply is disrupted in the Middle East (which accounts for about a third of the world’s crude oil production), how long will the disruptions last and whether this disruption can be offset by other sources
ECONOMY
Two interesting insights from RBI’s financial stability report
Just like the market rally, the insipid credit growth in the commercial sector is being fuelled by a few firms.
ECONOMY
Why did the monetary policy doves stop cooing?
MPC minutes show concerns on rising inflation expectations, fiscal slippage
BUSINESS
SBI’s bad loan under-reporting shows balance sheets still can’t be trusted
Investors seem to think that the worst is behind banks when it comes to stressed loans recognition. But that is more hope than reality
BUSINESS
OPEC production cuts: Should India worry?
These production cuts provide a floor to oil prices. Oil market is still tilted towards oversupply owing to rising US production, weak global economic growth and sluggish demand
ECONOMY
RBI pause highlights impotence of monetary policy in current situation
RBI should find ways to tackle the trust deficit in the banking system while the government should put more money into the hands of the people. That’s the way out of the economic slowdown.
ECONOMY
RBI will cut rates this week. But how much will it help?
Transmission will get stuck as market thinks that further rate cuts won’t be forthcoming. Fiscal slippages will add to pressures too.
ECONOMY
The dangers of directed banking
Directed lending will ultimately lead to a NPA pile-up and demands for forbearance. The taxpayer will end up footing the bill.
ECONOMY
Bank Frauds | Whose fault is it anyway?
What’s needed is a proper incentive structure for PSU banks and bankers.
POLICY
DHFL insolvency a test (and very difficult) case for the IBC
Credibility of DHFL balance sheet, allegations of fund diversion, ED investigation and litigations could make the case murkier.
POLICY
Lights off in the power sector
The disproportionate impact felt by the thermal sector will have additional ramifications on the banking sector, which could in turn hamper efforts to boost the economy through credit growth.
ECONOMY
Is India staring at stagflation?
Rising inflation will have an immediate effect on consumption demand. On the other hand, there's only so much rate cuts can do.
ECONOMY
NBFCs under IBC: An experiment worth considering
A resolution corporation as envisaged by the withdrawn FRDI bill is necessary from a long-term perspective. However, a quicker term fix for the NBFC sector, which would hopefully stoke credit growth, and hence economic growth, would be bringing it under the existing IBC.
BUSINESS
Adverse ruling in WTO? India needs to find ways to improve export competitiveness
For exports to increase, competitiveness has to improve and Indian companies need to find out ways to be part of global value chains. Obviously, subsidies won’t do that as they will be subject to challenges at WTO
BUSINESS
Markets | Sensex hits 40k for the first time since July. False dawn or new hope?
The key question is, whether this confidence in no more earnings downgrades is justified by the state of the economy? The answer is a resounding no.
BUSINESS
The big themes investors need to watch in Samvat 2076 | Markets
These are the themes investors should watch for in the new year ahead, to know whether markets will fare better or not in Samvat 2076
ECONOMY
India’s ease of doing business rank has jumped. Does it matter?
India should not rest on its laurels despite what the rankings suggest. There is a need to improve contract enforcement, introduce factor reforms so that companies are not encumbered with burdensome labour and land regulations, focus on upskilling the labour force and improve the quality of institutions.
MARKETS
Early Q2 results flag continuing asset quality pressures at banks
The risk is high especially from the real estate sector where credit from NBFCs has been choked off. Starved of liquidity, builders are struggling to pay their non-bank lenders, who in turn are defaulting on their dues to banks.
BUSINESS
What the RBI MPC minutes mean for the markets
Easing will continue as long as growth doesn’t pick up and inflation remains within target. For Indian stocks, this is an additional liquidity tailwind domestically
COMPANIES
Corporate Corridor | Tata’s Chandra says won’t sell JLR. Is it pride or business sense speaking?
The future is uncertain with Brexit, US tariffs and shift to electric vehicles.
ECONOMY
Policy | Tinkering with the bankruptcy law will send a wrong signal to the markets
The fact that so few cases are resulting in resolution is not necessarily a function of the IBC process itself. It is the function of a slowing economy.
SECTOR
RBI has rejected Indiabulls Housing–Lakshmi Vilas Bank merger. What next?
RBI’s rejection of the deal basically indicates that it does not trust the books of non-bank companies, particularly, those with links to the real estate sector. That would have ripple effect across the sector and increases the risk of contagion as fear and a trust deficit spreads throughout the financial system.
