POLITICS
What US Intelligence thinks of the threats from Russia and China
The Intelligence report says the world has become multipolar and warns of the growing spectre of great power conflict
BUSINESS
The yawning gap between Putin’s Great Power ambitions and Russian economy's decline
The threat posed by Russia to the West is military, not economic. But even in weapons, they are a shadow of the threat the USSR used to be
BUSINESS
Q3 GDP data mark a weak recovery, Ukraine war casts a shadow
If crude oil prices continue to remain elevated, we are likely to see a toxic mix of lower growth and higher inflation
POLITICS
Could Ukraine be Putin’s Afghanistan?
The US and the West have cleverly used Ukraine as a pawn to trap Russia
BUSINESS
How the Great Powers stack up militarily
As Russia invades Ukraine, how much do the Great Powers spend on their military? The accompanying charts tell the story
BUSINESS
What advance PMIs for February say about growth, inflation, supply crunch
The message from the flash PMI numbers is a simple one—in regions where the latest covid wave is ebbing, there has been a rebound in growth, accompanied by higher inflation
WORLD
Ukraine and the challenge to US hegemony
As the sociologist Giovanni Arrighi pointed out, “in all transitions, wars were essential ingredients in the change of guard at the commanding heights of world capitalism”
BUSINESS
Has the Chinese challenge peaked?
An IMF report says total factor productivity in the Chinese economy has seen a dramatic decline after the Global Financial Crisis
BUSINESS
Budget 2022: Has the government changed its spending priorities?
As a percentage of total expenditure in the Budget, the allocations to the Ministry of Health and the HRD ministry have both gone down. Instead, the share of spending on infrastructure has gone up
BUSINESS
Is the government making the same mistake the UPA did after the global financial crisis?
The fiscal deficit budgeted for 2022-23 is comparable to that prevailing after the global financial crisis. The boost to the economy then led to a temporary growth spurt, but it soon ended in tears. Will we see a repeat this time too?
BUSINESS
Conservative budget that needs to be commended for resisting populism before elections
Unlike past exercises, this year’s budget is conservative on many counts, including growth estimates and expenditure projections. The government has also resisted the temptation, again marking a departure, to launch populist measures to coax voters
BUSINESS
Budget 2022 | What people did not say about the Budget
What people allegedly had on their minds about the Union Budget, but wouldn’t dream of saying out loud
BUSINESS
Economic Survey says all is well. So where’s the need for a fiscal stimulus?
The Economic Survey is upbeat on consumption and investment rising. It has projected FY2022-23 GDP growth at 8-8.5 percent
BUSINESS
IMF says financial conditions remain accommodative in most economies
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update enumerates several risks for emerging markets as a consequence of tightening by the US Fed
BUSINESS
How to popularise the Budget while earning trillions in revenues
If the finance minister introduces this wonderful scheme, she will reserve her place in history as the most innovative finance minister ever
BUSINESS
US Fed Decision | What if Jay Powell is wrong again?
The crucial question is whether growth is really as strong as the US Fed believes it is
BUSINESS
What has the central government been spending on?
Almost half the central government’s expenditure has been on relatively inflexible items such as interest payments, defence, police and transfers to states, expenditure, leaving little available for development
BUSINESS
Markets stumble as PMI advance estimates show slowing growth, high inflation
Slowing growth and high inflation are the worst case scenario, because, if it persists, the US Fed will be caught in a cleft stick, being forced to tighten at a time when growth is decelerating. That is the market’s worst nightmare
BUSINESS
Oxfam, Inequality, Capitalism, and the Stock Market
Deng Xiaoping had said, ‘We should let some people and some regions get rich first’, adding, ‘for the purpose of achieving common prosperity faster’
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Testing times
This is going to be a year when all these theories on ‘transitory’ inflation, monetary policy tightening, durability of growth and soft landing for markets will be tested
BUSINESS
Has pandemic increased inequality in India? NBER paper says no
The NBER paper flies in the face of conventional wisdom that talks of a K-shaped recovery
BUSINESS
World Bank predicts global slowdown, but India one of the exceptions
As governments withdraw fiscal and monetary support and as pent-up demand wanes, global economic growth will slow in 2022 and 2023, but not for India
BUSINESS
Rise in headline retail inflation no cause for worry, but core inflation a problem
The general CPI index fell by 0.36 percent in December from the preceding month
BUSINESS
Budget Chart of the Day: Fiscal Fragility
India’s fiscal position is much worse than most countries in the region
