BUSINESS
Why the US stock market is less volatile during wars
An NBER research paper explains the puzzle of wars leading to lower market volatility by relating it to higher defence spending
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day | How many Fed rate hikes is the market pricing in?
The CME Fedwatch tool shows that there’s a 74.7 percent probability that the Fed Funds target rate will be 2.25-2.5 percent or higher by the end of the calendar year
BUSINESS
Book Review: Total Economic War and its Consequences
Mulder’s masterly account of economic sanctions during the first half of the 20th century has many lessons for us
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Why did equity markets rally this week?
It’s not all gloom and doom. And guess what, the Street found many reasons to put its best foot forward
BUSINESS
Ukraine effect | Too early for contrarian buy call, says Bank of America survey
Equity allocations are down but have not dropped to capitulation levels normally seen in a recession
BUSINESS
RBI faces dilemma as inflation breaches upper limit in February
Month-on-month retail inflation in February went up for the first time in three months
BUSINESS
How long can China keep up its People’s War strategy against COVID-19?
China has adopted a unique mass mobilisation strategy to combat the pandemic, calling it a ‘People’s War’. But the economic costs of its zero-covid policy are rising
POLITICS
What US Intelligence thinks of the threats from Russia and China
The Intelligence report says the world has become multipolar and warns of the growing spectre of great power conflict
BUSINESS
The yawning gap between Putin’s Great Power ambitions and Russian economy's decline
The threat posed by Russia to the West is military, not economic. But even in weapons, they are a shadow of the threat the USSR used to be
BUSINESS
Q3 GDP data mark a weak recovery, Ukraine war casts a shadow
If crude oil prices continue to remain elevated, we are likely to see a toxic mix of lower growth and higher inflation
POLITICS
Could Ukraine be Putin’s Afghanistan?
The US and the West have cleverly used Ukraine as a pawn to trap Russia
BUSINESS
How the Great Powers stack up militarily
As Russia invades Ukraine, how much do the Great Powers spend on their military? The accompanying charts tell the story
BUSINESS
What advance PMIs for February say about growth, inflation, supply crunch
The message from the flash PMI numbers is a simple one—in regions where the latest covid wave is ebbing, there has been a rebound in growth, accompanied by higher inflation
WORLD
Ukraine and the challenge to US hegemony
As the sociologist Giovanni Arrighi pointed out, “in all transitions, wars were essential ingredients in the change of guard at the commanding heights of world capitalism”
BUSINESS
Has the Chinese challenge peaked?
An IMF report says total factor productivity in the Chinese economy has seen a dramatic decline after the Global Financial Crisis
BUSINESS
Budget 2022: Has the government changed its spending priorities?
As a percentage of total expenditure in the Budget, the allocations to the Ministry of Health and the HRD ministry have both gone down. Instead, the share of spending on infrastructure has gone up
BUSINESS
Is the government making the same mistake the UPA did after the global financial crisis?
The fiscal deficit budgeted for 2022-23 is comparable to that prevailing after the global financial crisis. The boost to the economy then led to a temporary growth spurt, but it soon ended in tears. Will we see a repeat this time too?
BUSINESS
Conservative budget that needs to be commended for resisting populism before elections
Unlike past exercises, this year’s budget is conservative on many counts, including growth estimates and expenditure projections. The government has also resisted the temptation, again marking a departure, to launch populist measures to coax voters
BUSINESS
Budget 2022 | What people did not say about the Budget
What people allegedly had on their minds about the Union Budget, but wouldn’t dream of saying out loud
BUSINESS
Economic Survey says all is well. So where’s the need for a fiscal stimulus?
The Economic Survey is upbeat on consumption and investment rising. It has projected FY2022-23 GDP growth at 8-8.5 percent
BUSINESS
IMF says financial conditions remain accommodative in most economies
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook Update enumerates several risks for emerging markets as a consequence of tightening by the US Fed
BUSINESS
How to popularise the Budget while earning trillions in revenues
If the finance minister introduces this wonderful scheme, she will reserve her place in history as the most innovative finance minister ever
BUSINESS
US Fed Decision | What if Jay Powell is wrong again?
The crucial question is whether growth is really as strong as the US Fed believes it is
BUSINESS
What has the central government been spending on?
Almost half the central government’s expenditure has been on relatively inflexible items such as interest payments, defence, police and transfers to states, expenditure, leaving little available for development
