BUSINESS
Is RBI tightening policy at a time when industrial growth is still weak?
The higher-than-expected inflation is likely to result in another hike in the policy rate at the MPC’s next meeting on 6th-8th June
BUSINESS
The roots of the Sri Lankan crisis and the lessons to be learnt
Successive governments made up their revenue shortfalls by borrowing abroad hand over fist. The much-acclaimed Sri Lankan model had feet of clay
BUSINESS
PMI data for April reveal why RBI went in for a surprise rate hike
Private sector activity rose at the fastest pace in five months in April, adding to inflationary pressures
BUSINESS
RBI report says high level of government debt will hurt growth
The problem is that India’s government debt is projected to remain very high well into the future. The IMF, for instance, forecasts it will remain as high as 84.2 percent of GDP even in 2027
POLITICS
How the Ukraine war has boosted US dominance in Europe
Lord Ismay, NATO’s first secretary general, had said the organisation was created to ‘keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down’
BUSINESS
Commodity prices are at the root of the turmoil in the markets
Moody’s says high commodity prices and supply chain disruption expose about 42 percent of rated Indian companies to significant risks both in its baseline and high risk scenarios
BUSINESS
US Fed rate hikes: How much is priced in?
One reason for optimism for the markets is that much of the hawkishness has already been priced in, particularly in the last one month
BUSINESS
What war? PMI surveys show strong growth in advanced economies in April
But a combination of pent-up demand and supply disruptions has led to the steepest rise in inflation since the surveys began
BUSINESS
Investors rotated from equities to commodities, real estate and cash in the past 6 months
Long oil/commodities has been globally the most crowded trade this month
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day | The slack in the Indian economy will continue this fiscal year: IMF
The US, on the other hand, has a positive output gap, which indicates the economy is running red hot
BUSINESS
What does the IMF know that the RBI doesn’t?
The IMF’s forecast of GDP growth in India for 2022-23 is 8.2 percent, a percentage point higher than RBI’s estimate
BUSINESS
The savings glut of the rich
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook says that for the top 10 emerging market economies, excluding China, the savings share of the top 10 percent has gone up from 5.87 percent in 1995 to over 13 percent in 2014
BUSINESS
Retail inflation surged across the board in March
While consumer price inflation has gone up sharply, the index of industrial production shows the recovery is far from broad-based
BUSINESS
ADB forecasts monetary policy in India will remain accommodative for quite some time
The ADB report forecasts a Goldilocks scenario for the Indian economy -- strong growth with inflation within the RBI’s target range
BUSINESS
March PMI data for India show strong growth despite Ukraine war
With growth still strong, RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee will find it difficult to ignore rising inflation
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Mind the gap: The US has serious challengers
The interval between a dying old order and the emergence of a new one is riddled with minefields
BUSINESS
The three iron laws of wealth inequality
The distribution of wealth bears striking similarities across countries with very different political systems and at various stages of development. The Iron Law of Oligarchy, formulated by Roberto Michels 100 years ago, seems to be alive and kicking
BUSINESS
Why the US stock market is less volatile during wars
An NBER research paper explains the puzzle of wars leading to lower market volatility by relating it to higher defence spending
BUSINESS
Chart of the Day | How many Fed rate hikes is the market pricing in?
The CME Fedwatch tool shows that there’s a 74.7 percent probability that the Fed Funds target rate will be 2.25-2.5 percent or higher by the end of the calendar year
BUSINESS
Book Review: Total Economic War and its Consequences
Mulder’s masterly account of economic sanctions during the first half of the 20th century has many lessons for us
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender | Why did equity markets rally this week?
It’s not all gloom and doom. And guess what, the Street found many reasons to put its best foot forward
BUSINESS
Ukraine effect | Too early for contrarian buy call, says Bank of America survey
Equity allocations are down but have not dropped to capitulation levels normally seen in a recession
BUSINESS
RBI faces dilemma as inflation breaches upper limit in February
Month-on-month retail inflation in February went up for the first time in three months
BUSINESS
How long can China keep up its People’s War strategy against COVID-19?
China has adopted a unique mass mobilisation strategy to combat the pandemic, calling it a ‘People’s War’. But the economic costs of its zero-covid policy are rising
