BUDGET
FM Nirmala Sitharaman bets on salaried middle class to power economy
No taxes upto Rs 12 lakh annual income set to boost consumption spending; stays the path on fiscal consolidation with fiscal deficit target of 4.4 pc in FY26; farm economy in FM’s focus too with a slew of measures.
BUDGET
FM walks the talk on budget discipline; fiscal deficit target set at 4.4 per cent of GDP for FY 26
Primary deficit pegged at 0.8 per cent; debt-to-GDP ratio targetted to be brought down to 50 per cent (+_1) by 2031; another year of RBI dividend bonanza expected.
BUSINESS
GDP to grow at 6.3-6.8% amid global headwinds; eco survey asks govt to 'get out of the way' for businesses to prosper
Economic Survey sounds siren on protectionism and supply chain disruptions; industry needs to pick the tab on investment; jobs face AI reckoning.
BUSINESS
Budget making in times of complex constrained optimisation
Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman has an opportunity to trigger the right catalysts to unleash entrepreneurial animal spirits, and remain relentlessly focused on infrastructure-led growth and job creation
BUSINESS
Tale of two halves: GDP growth moderates in Q2, but early signs of rebound seen in second half
The latest batch of high-frequency indicators suggests that India's economy has regained some momentum in October. Inflation, however, remains the elephant in the room that can potentially spoil the recovery party in H2.
BUSINESS
India’s Q1 GDP growth at 6.7 percent still towers over rest of the world
One of the surest signs of consumer spending can be seen in shopping malls and car showrooms. The data for the first quarter clearly suggest that consumer confidence is cheerful.
BUSINESS
Moderating inflation is a good sign, but private sector 'crowding in' needed in investment
If the inflation trendline holds for two more months, the RBI could well look at lower interest rates ahead of the festival season in October, the time when consumer buying peaks. The laggard, however, is the capital goods output, a proxy measure investment activity. A similar trend is noticeable in intermediate goods, where growth has plateaued.
BUSINESS
MC Opinion: Hindenburg questions India’s judicial system's fairness, SC included. This requires extensive substantiation
The latest report seems thin on details and lacks investigative rigour. It needs to be supported by enough corroborative evidence to substantiate the claims and not risk Hindenburg’s credibility.
BUSINESS
SEBI needs to find a fine balance between regulation and market development on index derivatives
The regulator should keep one eye firmly on efficient price discovery, which is the core staple of a well-regulated capital market. This is a complex trade-off for SEBI to make
BUSINESS
FM Sitharaman stands firm on fiscal discipline; RBI dividends help in juggling post-poll necessities
Fiscal deficit pegged at 4.9%; lower primary deficit target at 1.4% mirrors recovery in public finance health; rise in revenue expenditure to address political economy pain points; balancing of the fisc predicated on robust GST, corporate and individual income tax collections.
ECONOMY
Growth set to slow to 6.5-7% in FY25; Survey asks corporates to pick the baton on job creation
The Economic Survey 2024 asks government to 'let go' in some areas, perhaps as a signal for more privatisation and less interference for businesses to flourish
BUSINESS
Union Budget 2024: Election results shouldn’t nudge NDA to stray from its fiscal goals
Union Budget 2024: Nirmala Sitharaman’s forthcoming budget is constrained by an effective time horizon of just eight months before the next one. Its fiscal stance should reflect continuity
BUSINESS
MC Analysis: GDP numbers show early signs of investment-led growth with strong multipliers
Such growth is qualitatively different and offers more solidity to the macro-economy. The national income data show that the construction sector grew 9.9 percent, mirroring the high pace of infrastructure project execution such as roads, highways, ports and airports
WORLD
Musk in Beijing as Apple seeks to reshore from China to India
Musk’s visit to China, following the cancellation of his scheduled visit to India earlier this month, may not be a zero sum game. It may well be part of a broader global supply chain blueprint to fit two Tesla’s different pieces of a plan involving two of the world’s most populous nations.
INDIA
PM Modi Interview: Solar to power growth as Modi sets goal on zero electricity bill and India as global energy-tech pioneer
There is an important subtext in the focus on solar energy: Increasing self-reliance on energy sources can progressively reduce the dependence on the dollar and hedge the Indian economy from the risks of leaning too heavily on the dollar, which is primarily driven by crude oil import requirements.
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
5 reasons why Piketty and Pitroda’s arguments on income & wealth inequality are fanciful and flawed
The focus should be firmly on reducing the count of those defined as poor, rather than trying to bring down the numbers of wealthy in a flawed quest to establish a more equal society by taking away assets from the prosperous and giving it away to the less affluent through an inheritance tax. A falling count of the poor would also mean that those previously counted as poor as getting better off. Here are five counters to Piketty and Pitroda:
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
In 7 charts: How India has transformed during the Modi decade
Lok Sabha elections 2024: Here's how India has fared under key economic indicators during the last 10 years of Modi government
BUSINESS
Of polls and pole positions: Market trend shows largely stable trading when India votes
The question everyone is asking is how much of the Lok Sabha elections in April-May this year will be a major determinant for the markets and the economy’s direction
BUSINESS
Sizzling 8.4 percent GDP growth in Q3 shows economy firmly in investment mode
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), a proxy to measure investment activity in the broader economy and accounting for about a third of India’s GDP (32.4 percent), grew 10.5 percent during October-December this year, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the previous quarter’s growth of 11.6 percent, and sharply higher than the 5 percent growth in GFCF in the third quarter of 2022-23.
BUSINESS
Karnataka budget's puzzling question: Why has the govt cut capex by nearly 28 percent?
Big jump in non-scheme-based expenditure. Set to grow to 61 percent of the state’s total revenue receipts in 2024-25, up from 56 percent in 2023-24 and further higher than 48 percent in 2022-23. This is a red flag that would prompt fiscal purists to stand up and take notice
BUSINESS
Opinion: When will RBI cut rates? The question everyone is asking as inflation cools, albeit slowly
The factory output data as shown in the December's IIP’s growth, mirror some pick-up in demand, although it may be too early to fit a defining trend. Firms would be hoping that cooling inflation will prompt interest rate cuts, which will help them raise money at lower costs
BUSINESS
FM interview: Growth robust; reforms yielding results, inflation manageable; open for SBI, ONGC disinvestment
Nirmala Sitharaman said the government is open to the idea of disinvestment of equity stake in blue-chip PSUs, including SBI and ONGC. The government is not against the idea of holding a minority stake in key strategic public sector firms
BUSINESS
Analysis: FM Sitharaman links secularism to government welfare programmes
India’s economic resurgence, amid the challenges posed by the pandemic, owes much to the Modi government’s ability to push through critical reforms that were previously stalled for lack of consensus.
BUSINESS
FM Sitharaman bets on infra to spur growth, with eyes firmly on fiscal math
The government will continue to do the heavy lifting on investment but at a more moderate pace. FM Sitharaman pencilled has in capital expenditure of Rs 11.1 lakh crore, a growth of 11.1 per cent over 2023-24. The fiscal deficit is projected at 5.1 percent, in line with the government’s medium-term targets.
