ECONOMY
Growth set to slow to 6.5-7% in FY25; Survey asks corporates to pick the baton on job creation
The Economic Survey 2024 asks government to 'let go' in some areas, perhaps as a signal for more privatisation and less interference for businesses to flourish
BUSINESS
Union Budget 2024: Election results shouldn’t nudge NDA to stray from its fiscal goals
Union Budget 2024: Nirmala Sitharaman’s forthcoming budget is constrained by an effective time horizon of just eight months before the next one. Its fiscal stance should reflect continuity
BUSINESS
MC Analysis: GDP numbers show early signs of investment-led growth with strong multipliers
Such growth is qualitatively different and offers more solidity to the macro-economy. The national income data show that the construction sector grew 9.9 percent, mirroring the high pace of infrastructure project execution such as roads, highways, ports and airports
WORLD
Musk in Beijing as Apple seeks to reshore from China to India
Musk’s visit to China, following the cancellation of his scheduled visit to India earlier this month, may not be a zero sum game. It may well be part of a broader global supply chain blueprint to fit two Tesla’s different pieces of a plan involving two of the world’s most populous nations.
INDIA
PM Modi Interview: Solar to power growth as Modi sets goal on zero electricity bill and India as global energy-tech pioneer
There is an important subtext in the focus on solar energy: Increasing self-reliance on energy sources can progressively reduce the dependence on the dollar and hedge the Indian economy from the risks of leaning too heavily on the dollar, which is primarily driven by crude oil import requirements.
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
5 reasons why Piketty and Pitroda’s arguments on income & wealth inequality are fanciful and flawed
The focus should be firmly on reducing the count of those defined as poor, rather than trying to bring down the numbers of wealthy in a flawed quest to establish a more equal society by taking away assets from the prosperous and giving it away to the less affluent through an inheritance tax. A falling count of the poor would also mean that those previously counted as poor as getting better off. Here are five counters to Piketty and Pitroda:
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
In 7 charts: How India has transformed during the Modi decade
Lok Sabha elections 2024: Here's how India has fared under key economic indicators during the last 10 years of Modi government
BUSINESS
Of polls and pole positions: Market trend shows largely stable trading when India votes
The question everyone is asking is how much of the Lok Sabha elections in April-May this year will be a major determinant for the markets and the economy’s direction
BUSINESS
Sizzling 8.4 percent GDP growth in Q3 shows economy firmly in investment mode
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), a proxy to measure investment activity in the broader economy and accounting for about a third of India’s GDP (32.4 percent), grew 10.5 percent during October-December this year, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the previous quarter’s growth of 11.6 percent, and sharply higher than the 5 percent growth in GFCF in the third quarter of 2022-23.
BUSINESS
Karnataka budget's puzzling question: Why has the govt cut capex by nearly 28 percent?
Big jump in non-scheme-based expenditure. Set to grow to 61 percent of the state’s total revenue receipts in 2024-25, up from 56 percent in 2023-24 and further higher than 48 percent in 2022-23. This is a red flag that would prompt fiscal purists to stand up and take notice
BUSINESS
Opinion: When will RBI cut rates? The question everyone is asking as inflation cools, albeit slowly
The factory output data as shown in the December's IIP’s growth, mirror some pick-up in demand, although it may be too early to fit a defining trend. Firms would be hoping that cooling inflation will prompt interest rate cuts, which will help them raise money at lower costs
BUSINESS
FM interview: Growth robust; reforms yielding results, inflation manageable; open for SBI, ONGC disinvestment
Nirmala Sitharaman said the government is open to the idea of disinvestment of equity stake in blue-chip PSUs, including SBI and ONGC. The government is not against the idea of holding a minority stake in key strategic public sector firms
BUSINESS
Analysis: FM Sitharaman links secularism to government welfare programmes
India’s economic resurgence, amid the challenges posed by the pandemic, owes much to the Modi government’s ability to push through critical reforms that were previously stalled for lack of consensus.
BUSINESS
FM Sitharaman bets on infra to spur growth, with eyes firmly on fiscal math
The government will continue to do the heavy lifting on investment but at a more moderate pace. FM Sitharaman pencilled has in capital expenditure of Rs 11.1 lakh crore, a growth of 11.1 per cent over 2023-24. The fiscal deficit is projected at 5.1 percent, in line with the government’s medium-term targets.
BUSINESS
Interim Budget seeks to decouple budget-making from long-term policy goals
FM Sitharaman walks the talk on fiscal discipline. The finance minister has put the accent on the hour hand of the clock by looking ahead a quarter century hence (2047) and free-up policymaking mindspace from annual financial calendars
BUDGET
FM Sitharaman’s Interim Budget sets tone for Viksit Bharat roadmap
Capital expenditure outlay has increased by 11.1 per cent to Rs 11.1 lakh crore. Fiscal deficit for FY 25 has been pegged at 5.1 per cent of GDP; GYAN (garib, yuva, annadata, narishakti) identified as key pillars to drive development.
BUSINESS
UPI is more than ease of payments. It is adding to GDP too
Ease and convenience of spending has lowered the economy-wide cost of transaction. The resultant saving is triggering incremental spending. UPI is also enabling easier credit-driven household spending
BUSINESS
Telecom Bill 2023: Ground laid out for India telecom’s space take-off
Once voted into law, the Telecom Bill 2023 will replace three laws—the Indian Telegraph Act of 1885, the Indian Wireless Telegraphy Act, 1933, and the Telegraph Wires (Unlawful Possession) Act, 1950. It will also amend the TRAI Act, 1997, without diluting the regulator’s powers.
BUSINESS
IIP shows flurry in factories; Nov, Dec numbers crucial to fit a surer trend
If growth holds robustly for the next two months, then it would be reasonable to assume that the broader economy, powered by consumer demand, is accelerating onto a faster track
BUSINESS
Q2 GDP: Manufacturing, construction power up economy, but villages need to shine
Greater factory output, in normal circumstances, should indicate greater demand for goods at an aggregate level. Production and consumption of intermediates—cement and steel—appear to corroborate this. This would broadly imply greater construction activity, which is showing up in the national income numbers.
BUSINESS
God’s own country inching towards a fiscal precipice. Blaming the Centre alone won’t help
Kerala’s finances require a long hard look. By all accounts, this doesn’t make for a healthy public finance management glide path
BUSINESS
Surge in India’s taxpayer base mirrors upward mobility
The number of people declaring Rs 10 lakh-plus annual income has grown nearly fourfold in the past 10 years. While inflation could explain part of this rise in income levels, and a part by more toning of the tax administration nudging people towards more income disclosures, a substantial part of this 93.7 million taxpayer base is a reasonable proxy of growing formalisation, rising incomes, and better affordability that have turned yesterday’s luxuries into today’s necessities
TRENDS
GHI gets it wrong. Shorter Indian children doesn't mean it is because they sleep hungry. It’s more complex than that
There is a wide body of literature by distinguished Nobel laureates that suggest correlating height with hunger will be fallacious. There are two fundamental flaws in GHI’s methodology. First, is the conflation of the aspect of physical height with hunger. Second, is the collection and the methodology of data itself. The highest level of statistical and academic rigour should be non-negotiable while framing such indices. Hunger is too serious a matter
BUSINESS
India’s growth a global standout with China slowing and US recession still likely
World Bank projections reinforce India’s position as a global growth engine. The world will lean heavily on India to pull the global economy in an uncertain period
