BUSINESS
A global winter of discontent is looming ahead
The first order effect in the markets was the fall in valuations. Now the second order impact of earnings recession will hit the markets
BUSINESS
Fourteen Years Later: Forgotten lessons from Lehman Brothers and the GFC
Policy makers must heed the lessons from their failure to bail out Lehman Brothers in 2008 and be mindful of the risks of too much monetary tightening
BUSINESS
How many jobs will it cost to bring down US inflation to 2%?
What the markets haven’t yet digested is that the Fed is determined to stamp out inflation and that will come at a severe economic cost
BUSINESS
What does the inverted yield curve in the US signify?
Yield curve inversion is usually a pointer to an impending recession, but there is a good chance that the US may manage a soft-landing this time
BUSINESS
The US Fed’s Quantitative Tightening programme is all set to accelerate from September
A study by Raghuram Rajan and others says: “If the past repeats, the shrinkage of the central bank balance sheet is not likely to be an entirely benign process”
BUSINESS
When the only certainty is uncertainty: Volatile markets and tough talking central bankers
Have we crossed peak inflation and peak dollar? Is geopolitics going to get worse? Will central banks be able to manage a soft landing? Will the Chinese authorities be able to avert a crisis? These are the many questions plaguing the markets at present
BUSINESS
Investing in an era of mixed economic signals
The good news is, even with a hard landing, markets recover sharply after the onset of the recession, giving, on average, great returns 12 months and 24 months later as the early cycle starts taking root
BUSINESS
The economy is not the market: We invest in stocks, not the GDP
In times of extreme stress in the economy, the sentiments bend the markets towards the point of the economic cycle. But soon enough we see that markets start playing their role of being complex adaptive mechanisms that are forward looking
BUSINESS
Is the Powell Pivot for real or are markets reacting too early?
What was missed by the markets was that Powell was very clear that the balance has shifted towards inflation control and away from ensuring maximum employment and growth
BUSINESS
A peak in the US dollar will lead to a pivot in emerging markets inflows
As the US Fed hikes interest rates once again, the question for the markets is when do we see peak inflation, peak rates and a peak in the US dollar
BUSINESS
Central banks pivot from ‘Whatever it Takes’ to ‘Whatever it Breaks’
There has been a fundamental change in central bank policies in recent times that have enormous implications for economies and markets
BUSINESS
How far to the market bottom?
Peak interest rates, peak inflation and peak US dollar levels are good signals of an imminent market bottom. Those may be a few months away
BUSINESS
After a traumatic first half, what does second half of the year hold for market?
What happens after peak inflation and peak interest rates? A strong performance by the markets
WORLD
What the coming US midterm elections signal for markets
Investors turn jittery in the run-up to midterm elections as there's uncertainty on the outcome
BUSINESS
Rates, recession, war and markets: A Reappraisal
Markets are real world forward looking discounting mechanisms and their flashing red behaviour may indeed be the canary in the mine, warning us of an impending economic slowdown
BUSINESS
Quantitative Tightening: Going into uncharted waters
Quantitative Easing (QE) helped boost investor confidence, inject liquidity into markets and led to huge valuation gains for all asset classes. As QE is replaced by Quantitative Tightening (QT), the question is what will be the impact of the same on investor confidence, systemic liquidity and on asset valuations.
BUSINESS
The threat of recession: Preparing for the coming winter
We might be in for an L-shaped market, going down and taking time to consolidate at lower levels
BUSINESS
Downtrend, recession fears and the quest for a market bottom
In India, over the last 30 years, there have been 9 instances of a 20% or more fall in the markets, leading to an official bear market
BUSINESS
Taking no risk is the biggest risk, in good times and bad
One big concept that all of us must understand is the hidden tax of inflation which silently keeps reducing the value of our money
BUSINESS
Lessons from the investment trenches for challenging days
Ignore the noise, especially in these daunting times, and stick to disciplined, diversified, quality, low cost and boring investing
BUSINESS
The art and science of investing when markets are at peak pessimism
There is a more than even chance that as we reach near the end of the rate hike cycle, some economies will be nearing or already experiencing recessions
BUSINESS
Why looming interest rate hikes are so scary for markets this time around
History may not be a very good guide about what happens in the markets this time because of the unprecedented nature of the challenges ahead of us
BUSINESS
Why looming interest rate hikes are so scary for markets this time
As inflation shoots up to 40-year highs in many regions of the world, central banks are under pressure to increase the price of money, i.e., interest rates, on a faster than anticipated trajectory. This will have far reaching consequences for households, companies, investors, governments and elections
BUSINESS
Why this is a time to be cautious in the markets
We have had great markets post 2008. It is time to take account of the successes and prepare for the inevitable global corrections, 12-24 months down the line
