Will the failed attempt of PSLV-C39 impact ISRO’s space business?

The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and its commercial arm Antrix have witnessed stellar successes in the last couple of years launching 130 foreign satellites and at least 18 satellites of Indian origin into space. This includes the launch of record 104 satellites launched in one go in February 2017. The workhorse for all these launches has been Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV).

However, a defect in heat shield in the PSLV-C39 launched on Thursday resulted in one of the rare failed attempts to place a satellite in an orbit in this decade by the ISRO. After the third stage of the flight, the heat shield, inside which the satellite IRNSS-1H was packed, did not open and the mission was declared a failure.

This was the first time ISRO had given a contract to a private company Alpha Design Technology Pvt. Ltd to assemble the satellite, however, under the supervision of its scientists.

Any impact on ISRO’s space business?

In order to find out the possible impact of the failure on ISRO’s commercial assignment, a comparison can be made with Arianespace's (a French commercial space launch service provider) rocket launch graphs. The last failed attempt by Ariane family of rockets was in 2002. Out of 12 launches during that year, 11 were successes and one was a failure. The very next year the total Ariane rocket launched was four and in 2004, it dropped to three.

Even Dnepr, the Russian-Ukranian launch vehicle, saw a drop in the number of satellites launched in subsequent years of a failure in 2006 (in an attempt to place 18 satellites in one go). That year, it was contracted to launch at least 19 satellites and in 2008 it dropped to six.

Interestingly, Dnepr was the vehicle which held the record for most satellites launched in one go (37 in 2014) till it was broken by the PSLV.

As per a report in Livemint, ISRO/Antrix currently has Rs 600 crore order in their hands, for PSLV launches up to 2020, almost all of them for satellites to be put into Low Earth Orbit (between 1,150-1,350km above the earth).  Given the track record and the number of customers during these days, as there is slew of companies betting on broadband satellites, PSLV may not see a drop as significant as Ariane or Dnepr.

Broadband satellites are the part of a futuristic idea which aims to cover every inch of the earth by fast internet. Thousands of satellites will be launched in order to cover every part of the planet. For example, SpaceX plans to launch 4,425 satellites. The data packets will be sent from one place from another at a significant speed using these, unlike the fibre cable currently in use.

So, effectively, USD 335.5 billion global space industry is going to be even bigger. However, there are a number of players (SpaceX, etc.) in the market who are ready to launch satellites at a competitive price compared to 2002 when there were a few players. ISRO will have to buckle up.

Former scientists of India were quick to back the ISRO and the team and they reflected their faith that PSLV would quickly be back in the league. "Failures are not uncommon. If you look at the global scenario, five to ten per cent is a failure rate of proven launch vehicles itself. Compared to that, we were hardly one failure in 40. That's our record. It has become two (failures out of 40 launches). We cannot be satisfied with statistics. We have to be concerned about it," said former ISRO Chairman, G Madhavan Nair.

Another former ISRO chairman K Kasturirangan said that the failure is all the more hurting because of the fact that we expect 100 percent success every time to we do with PSLV. "...we have to look forward; they (ISRO) have got a big agenda for space and ambitious agenda; it can be fulfilled only with courage of conviction, determination and exceptional technical professionalism. In all these, ISRO is now well known and established its credentials," he added.

The next launch of the PSLV will be very significant. ISRO's customers would be looking up to it to be a success, so will be the space organisation. A lot depends on it.

(With inputs from PTI)