Why Iraq’s election matters in the Middle East power game

Iraq’s fragile power balance tested

Iraqis are preparing to cast their ballots in a parliamentary election that arrives at a decisive moment for both the country and the wider Middle East. Polling begins on Sunday for members of the security forces and displaced citizens in camps, with the general election scheduled for Tuesday.

The results will determine whether Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani secures a second term. The vote comes amid fears of an escalation between Israel and Iran, and potential Israeli or U.S. strikes on Iran-backed militias operating in Iraq. Baghdad continues to navigate a fragile balance between Tehran and Washington, facing heightened pressure from the Trump administration to curb Iranian influence.

This marks Iraq’s seventh parliamentary election since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein. The ensuing years of sectarian conflict and insurgency have largely given way to a calmer period, though widespread frustration over poor services and unemployment persists.

Under electoral law, 25% of parliament’s 329 seats are reserved for women, while nine seats are allocated to religious minorities. Power-sharing conventions dictate that the prime minister is Shiite, the president a Kurd, and the speaker of parliament a Sunni.

Voter participation has steadily declined, falling to 41% in 2021, the lowest since Saddam’s fall. Only 21.4 million of Iraq’s 32 million eligible voters have updated their records this year, a sharp drop from the last election. For the first time, no polling stations will operate abroad.

More than 7,700 candidates are vying for seats, representing a spectrum of sectarian and regional blocs alongside several independents.

Prominent Shiite factions include those led by Nouri al-Maliki, Ammar al-Hakim, and leaders tied to armed groups such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq. Competing Sunni alliances are headed by Mohammed al-Halbousi and Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, while Kurdish politics remain dominated by the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.

Notably absent is Muqtada al-Sadr’s Sadrist Movement, which is boycotting after withdrawing from parliament in 2021. Once the largest bloc, its absence has muted political activity in its strongholds, such as Sadr City in Baghdad, where calls for an election boycott replace the usual campaign posters.

Some reformist movements born from the 2019 protest wave are contesting the election, though internal rifts and lack of funding have limited their reach.

Election officials have disqualified 848 candidates, citing offences ranging from corruption to “insulting religious rituals.” Allegations of vote-buying and procedural irregularities are widespread.

Although political violence has subsided compared to earlier years, it has not disappeared. In October, Safaa al-Mashhadani, a Sunni candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member, was killed in a car bombing north of the capital. Authorities have detained five suspects, classifying the attack as a terrorist act.

Prime Minister al-Sudani, in power since 2022 with backing from pro-Iran factions, has sought to project himself as a pragmatic reformer focused on governance and service delivery. Iraq has enjoyed relative calm under his leadership, but his route to re-election remains uncertain — only Nouri al-Maliki has managed a second term since 2003.

The election results may not directly determine al-Sudani’s fate; in Iraq’s fractious politics, the largest bloc rarely secures its preferred premier. He faces internal disputes within the Shiite Coordination Framework over control of state institutions, while the U.S. continues to press him to rein in Iran-aligned militias, including the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).

Members of the PMF, formally under the military’s command since 2016 but still wielding significant autonomy, will join the early vote alongside the army and police on Saturday — a reminder that Iraq’s ballot remains inseparable from its battleground politics.