Russia's huge battlefield cost: Almost 1 million dead or wounded in Ukraine conflict, new report estimates

Russia's war against Ukraine has extracted a huge price: almost a million Russian troops dead or injured since the invasion started in February 2022, a report by Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has said. Ukrainian toll, though lower, is also heavy, with almost 400,000 dead or injured, taking the number of casualties to almost 1.4 million in a little over three years.

The statistics come from a mix of US and British intelligence estimates and other open-source sources. While accurate numbers are lacking—Moscow is reported to fudge its losses and Kyiv does not release military casualty figures—the CSIS report is one of the most thorough independent attempts to quantify the war's human toll to date, the New York Times reported.

A grinding and expensive war of attrition

Despite the scale of its losses, Russia has seized less than 1 percent of additional Ukrainian territory since January 2024 and now controls about 20 percent of Ukraine in total. The CSIS study notes that Russian forces are advancing in some areas at a rate of only 165 feet per day—slower than some of the most infamous battles of World War I.

"Russia's war in Ukraine is on track to be one of the slowest offensive wars of modern times," wrote Seth G. Jones, CSIS senior vice president and co-author of the report. "They've lost over one million casualties; they've captured a tiny little slice of terrain; and they've lost enormous quantities of equipment."

The rough estimate of 250,000 Russian military fatalities makes this Russia's deadliest conflict since World War II. In comparison, Ukrainian fatalities are estimated at 60,000 to 100,000. Still, with Russia deploying a force of over 400,000 troops—almost three times as many as Ukraine's 250,000—Kyiv is losing proportionally more from its national population and military.

Putin's manpower solution: conscripts, convicts, and allies

Moscow was able to maintain its troop numbers by holding its first nationwide draft since World War II and by paying cash bounties to convicted criminals, debtors, and others in exchange for enlistment. Russian President Vladimir Putin also paid cash bounties and made enlistment an option to avoid prosecution.

To further strengthen forces, Russia has tapped military aid from allies such as North Korea, which apparently deployed more than 10,000 troops to aid in the recapture of territory in northwestern Kursk region after Ukrainian counterattacks there last year.

Nevertheless, heavy casualties and logistics problems for the Russian military have undercut its international reputation. Russia, with its enormous resources, has not been able to breach firmly entrenched Ukrainian positions or seize strategically important terrain in any meaningful manner since the beginning of 2023.

A war based on Western assistance—and political determination

Ukraine's capacity to hold its ground and even to attack deep in Russian territory—as it did in a bold series of airfield raids over the weekend—has caught many in the West off guard and undercut assumptions of Russian military supremacy.

But the CSIS report also cautions that the fate of the war may depend as much on U.S. politics as on battlefield circumstances. The study's co-author, Seth Jones, hinted a second term by Trump might upset the balance considerably.

If America doesn't take a walk, Putin is in big trouble," Jones explained. "The Russians would have the long-term upper hand if President Trump takes a walk.

Donald Trump has thus far withstood pressure to pressure Russia into a peace agreement and has consistently refused to pledge further military aid to Ukraine. His approach, European and Ukrainian officials caution, risks exposing Kyiv to vulnerability in an extended war of attrition that massively favours Moscow's greater population and resources.

For now, though, Ukraine continues to fight—at immense human cost, but with the backing of allies determined to prevent Russia from claiming victory.