Peter Navarro’s take on India-Russia oil ties and the Ukraine conflict doesn't hold up: Debunking Trump adviser's claims

Renewing his criticism of India’s energy ties with Russia, White House trade advisor and economist Peter Navarro, who earlier dubbed the Ukraine conflict as “PM Modi’s war, has now asserted that “the road to peace in Ukraine runs through New Delhi.”

The statement comes as US President Donald Trump’s steep 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods come into effect. While Navarro keeps up his criticism of New Delhi, several of Trump’s ex-officials have expressed concerns over his approach.

Former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley warned that US-India relations are “nearing a breaking point.” Meanwhile, former national security adviser John Bolton criticised Trump's trade policy as “confused”, questioning the logic behind imposing punitive tariffs on New Delhi, even as federal officials conducted searches of Trump’s home and office.

Navarro, meanwhile, has stated, “This isn’t just about India’s unfair trade -- it’s about cutting off the financial lifeline India has extended to Putin’s war machine.”

1/ President Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports are now in effect.

This isn’t just about India’s unfair trade—it’s about cutting off the financial lifeline India has extended to Putin’s war machine. 🧵 pic.twitter.com/bwLaL9dBTv — Peter Navarro (@RealPNavarro) August 28, 2025

1. In a recent post on X, Peter Navarro claimed, “President Trump’s 50% tariffs on Indian imports are now in effect. This isn’t just about India’s unfair trade—it’s about cutting off the financial lifeline India has extended to Putin’s war machine.”

Russia, the world’s second-largest crude oil producer with an output of around 9.5 million barrels/day (nearly 10 per cent of global demand), is also the second-largest exporter, shipping about 4.5 mb/d of crude and 2.3 mb/d of refined products.

When fears of Russian oil exiting the market unsettled global trade flows in March 2022, Brent crude spiked to $137 a barrel. If India stopped importing Russian crude today, oil prices could climb above $200 per barrel for consumers across the globe.

The West itself has acknowledged the benefits of India’s role. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted that the United States is “happy” with India’s oil purchases. US ambassador Eric Garcetti recognised India’s efforts in preventing a price surge, while Geoffrey Pyatt described India as a key stabiliser in the global energy system.

2. In a continuation of his criticism, Navarro noted, “Here’s how the India-Russia oil mathematics works: American consumers buy Indian goods while India keeps out U.S. exports through high tariffs and non-tariff barriers. India uses our dollars to buy discounted Russian crude.”

Contrary to Navarro’s assertion, Indian refiners are not using US dollars to purchase Russian crude oil. These transactions are routed through traders based in third countries, and are settled using alternative currencies, such as the UAE dirham (AED), rather than the US dollar.

Furthermore, India’s crude oil purchases from Russia have remained fully legitimate and within the framework of international norms, including adherence to the G7/EU price cap mechanism.

India’s crude imports from Russia were encouraged by Western nations to help stabilize global oil markets, which is why Russian oil was never directly sanctioned by the U.S., EU, or G7 but placed under a price-cap mechanism to limit revenues while maintaining supply.

3. He then claims, “Indian refiners, with their silent Russian partners, refine and flip the black-market oil for big profits on the international market – while Russia pockets hard currency to fund its war on Ukraine.”

While Iranian and Venezuelan oil face outright sanctions -- preventing Indian state-run firms from buying them -- Russian crude has not been sanctioned by the US, EU, or G7. It is instead governed by a price-cap mechanism intended to restrict excess profits yet maintain supply to global markets.

India has not imported LNG or LPG from any sanctioned Russian projects, and its energy trade remains compliant with international norms.

Moreover, the 18th EU sanctions package has had the opposite effect, making Nayara Energy, a 20 MMTPA refinery, fully reliant on Russian crude.

What was once 60–65% of its intake from Russia has now reached 100%, not due to any covert partnership, but as a direct consequence of shifting market dynamics influenced by Western policy decisions.

4. While Peter Navarro has claimed that India’s increased Russian oil exports are driven by “profiteers” and come with the “price of blood,” the facts on the ground tell a different story.

The Indian government implemented several pro-consumer measures to protect domestic fuel prices.

Export taxes were imposed to discourage private refiners from prioritising foreign markets, and new rules required exporters to maintain minimum domestic supply quotas, 50% for petrol and 30% for diesel.

Additionally, both central and state governments reduced fuel taxes by Rs 10 per litre in May 2022. These combined efforts ensured stable prices and uninterrupted fuel supply, helping prevent global oil prices from soaring above $200 per barrel following OPEC+ production cuts.

5. Peter Navarro stated: "Indian refiners, with their silent Russian partners, refine and flip the black-market oil for big profits on the international market – while Russia pockets hard currency to fund its war on Ukraine."

India has long been the fourth largest refiner and exporter of petroleum products, with a refining industry built on decades of long-term investments.

With 23 refineries primarily serving domestic needs, India exports petroleum products to over 150 nations.

Contrary to Navarro’s claim, India has not been selling cheap Russian crude to other countries. Instead, it refines the crude, along with hundreds of other grades, into petroleum products, most of which are consumed domestically.

6. Peter Navarro stated, “India now exports over 1 million barrels a day in refined petroleum—more than half the volume of Russian crude it imports. The proceeds flow to India’s politically connected energy titans—and directly into Putin’s war chest.”

Navarro’s assertion overlooks the broader context of India’s petroleum trade. While Russia accounts for 30-35% of India’s crude imports, the majority, approximately 70%, of refined petroleum products are used domestically to meet India’s vast energy needs.

India exports petroleum products primarily for global supply, with exports to the EU marginally increasing to 21 MMT in FY 2024-25. India’s total refining capacity has also grown from 249 MMTPA in 2021 to 260 MMTPA.

7. He claimed, “While the United States pays to arm Ukraine, India bankrolls Russia even as it slaps some of the world’s highest tariffs on U.S. goods, which in turn punishes American exporters.”

The US runs significant trade deficits not just with India, but also with China, the EU, and Mexico. India’s $50 billion trade deficit with the U.S. is relatively small in comparison. At the same time, India buys billions in US goods, including aircraft, LNG, defence equipment, and technology.

8. He further added, “It doesn’t stop there. India continues to buy Russian weapons—while demanding that U.S. firms transfer sensitive military tech and build plants in India. That’s strategic freeloading.”

This claim overlooks the strong military and strategic partnership between India and the U.S. India is heavily investing in U.S. partnerships, including jet engine co-production with GE, acquiring MQ-9 drones, and collaborating through QUAD and Indo-Pacific defense cooperation.

9. Lastly, he said, “The Biden admin largely looked the other way at this madness. President Trump is confronting it. A 50% tariff—25% for unfair trade and 25% for national security—is a direct response. If India, the world's largest democracy, wants to be treated like a strategic partner of the U.S., it needs to act like one. The road to peace in Ukraine runs through New Delhi.”

India has consistently advocated for peace and diplomacy at the United Nations, calling for an end to the conflict in Ukraine. The demand to sanction Russia at the cost of India’s survival is hypocritical, given that Europe still buys Russian gas and the US continues to purchase Russian uranium.