India pulls out of Tajikistan’s Ayni airbase after two decades: The reasons, the fallout and what comes next | Explained

India has officially wound up its operations at the Ayni airbase in Tajikistan, marking the end of a two-decade-long military presence in Central Asia. The withdrawal, which reportedly took place in 2022, followed the expiry of a bilateral agreement between the two countries. The move has raised questions about India’s future strategic footprint in the region, especially as Russia and China consolidate their influence there.

According to CNN-News18 and PTI reports, India had been running the Ayni airbase, also known as the Gissar Military Aerodrome, since 2002 under a deal with the Tajik government. It was a rare overseas military outpost for India and provided a crucial vantage point near Afghanistan and Pakistan.

India’s exit from the Ayni airbase

People familiar with the matter told PTI that India’s exit followed the end of its agreement with Tajikistan for the development and joint operation of the base. As ThePrint reported, the airbase had been taken on lease by India, but Tajikistan informed New Delhi that the lease would not be extended once it expired.

By 2022, India had pulled out its personnel and equipment from the base. The facility had housed Indian Air Force helicopters, repair facilities, and maintenance equipment. The Economic Times reported that the base’s utility diminished after the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan in 2021, making it less strategically relevant for India.

Sources told Economic Times that pressure from Russia and China influenced Tajikistan’s decision not to renew the lease. Russian forces have since taken over the base, although India continues to maintain a presence in the broader Central Asian region.

How India came to operate Ayni airbase

India began developing the Ayni airbase in the early 2000s under an agreement with Tajikistan. Located just west of Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, the base had been a neglected Soviet-era facility before India stepped in to modernize it.

According to ThePrint, “radical thinkers” in India’s Ministry of External Affairs and the security establishment had proposed reviving the Gissar Military Aerodrome around 2001–2002. The project was funded by the MEA and strongly supported by then Defence Minister George Fernandes. National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and former Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa also played key roles in the effort.

India invested close to $100 million in the development and modernization of the airbase. It extended the runway to 3,200 metres and upgraded facilities for refuelling, repairs, and hangars. At times, India even stationed around 200 personnel from the army and air force at the site.

Hindustan Times reported that India temporarily deployed Su-30MKI fighter jets and helicopters to the base roughly a decade ago. The airbase was also used in 2021 to evacuate Indian nationals and officials from Afghanistan after the Taliban takeover.

Why the Ayni airbase mattered for India

The Ayni airbase held immense strategic value for India. Initially, India’s objective was to support the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance led by Ahmad Shah Masood in Afghanistan. In the 1990s, India had already established a hospital in Farkhor, southern Tajikistan, where Masood was treated after the 2001 suicide attack that claimed his life.

Ayni’s location gave India a unique advantage. The base is just about 20 kilometres from Afghanistan’s Wakhan Corridor, which borders Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). From there, Indian forces could theoretically target key Pakistani cities such as Peshawar. According to ThePrint, this created “strategic pressure” on Pakistan, as it would have been forced to divert military resources from its eastern border with India.

Beyond Pakistan, Ayni served as a gateway for India to enhance its presence in Central Asia, a region traditionally dominated by Russia and increasingly influenced by China.

Newsweek quoted Andrea Stauder, a senior analyst at BISI, who noted in a July report, “While Russia and China remain dominant, India has an opportunity to expand its role beyond security into economic engagement.”

Why the withdrawal matters

India’s withdrawal from Ayni signals a narrowing of its military footprint in Central Asia. Experts believe it could embolden Russia and China to further consolidate their influence in Tajikistan and beyond.

While India still maintains strong diplomatic and cultural ties with Central Asian countries, the loss of Ayni limits its ability to project power in the region. The base had served as a strategic counterbalance to both Pakistan’s proximity to Afghanistan and China’s growing economic and military presence in Central Asia.

However, observers note that the decision was shaped as much by geopolitics as by practicality. With the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan and changing regional dynamics, India’s military presence in Tajikistan may have become harder to sustain.

In the broader context, the closure of India’s Ayni operations marks the end of one of its most significant strategic ventures beyond South Asia, and a reminder of how regional power equations can shift in subtle but lasting ways.