COP30: Climate summit in the Amazon will test if promises can pay for progress

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks as he attends the opening of the Belem Climate Summit plenary session, as part of the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), in Belem. (REUTERS)

When representatives of nearly 200 countries meet in the Amazonian city of Belém on November 10 for the 30th UN climate summit, also known as COP30, the numbers on both sides of the climate ledger will be impossible to ignore. The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 shows that greenhouse gases continue to rise, pushing the planet toward dangerous warming by the end of the century.

Emissions are now 7% higher than in 2020 and show no sign of peaking soon. “Current policies will reduce projected 2030 emissions by only 2% compared with last year’s estimates,” the United Nations Environment Programme has warned, far short of what is needed to keep the world safe. “The path to a liveable future gets steeper by the day,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up.”

The financial picture is equally troubling. The Baku-to-Belém Roadmap, launched on Wednesday, calls for mobilising $1.3 trillion a year in climate finance by 2035, of which $300 billion is meant to flow from richer to poorer countries. That target looks distant since actual disbursements are barely a tenth of what is needed. This mismatch between ambition and delivery will define COP30.

“Fossil fuels still command vast subsidies,” Guterres said in Belém on Thursday. “Too many corporations are making record profits from climate devastation, with billions spent on lobbying, deceiving the public and obstructing progress.” A decade after the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, the gap between promises and performance has become a test of credibility for the UN process.

“Instead of arguing for $1.3 trillion, the Baku to Belem road map could have chosen to focus on using the agreed $300 billion effectively and efficiently by leveraging available concessional finance to crowd in and direct private finance,” said Dhruba Purkayastha, advisor, Observer Research Foundation. “With this roadmap in hand, COP30 must pivot from plans on paper to investment at scale,” said Melanie Robinson, global director of climate, economics and finance, World Resources Institute. “The roadmap shows how to reach $1.3 trillion; now the world must deliver.”

Broken arithmetic of ambition

The UNFCCC 2025 NDC Synthesis Report, which compiles national climate plans, finds that most countries have updated their pledges. Yet, taken together, these plans still add up to more emissions, not less. Global emissions in 2030 are projected to be nearly 9% higher than in 2010. The WRI State of Climate Action 2025 notes that no major sector, whether it is energy, transport, industry or agriculture, is yet reducing emissions fast enough to change this trajectory.

Broad estimates show that global emissions could fall by around 10% by 2035, Simon Stiell, executive secretary, UN Climate Change, said in a statement. “Humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough,” Stiell said.

Behind the numbers lies a geopolitical truth. Rich countries have consistently failed to deliver the finance that would make deeper cuts possible in developing economies. The $100 billion a year pledge made in 2009 was met only in 2023, long after it had lost its relevance. Now, even as the new trillion-dollar goal is discussed, clarity on sources, timelines and access remains weak.

For countries such as India, this is not just about goodwill but economic reality. The Centre for Energy, Environment and Water estimates that India will need $10 trillion in investments to reach its net-zero goal by 2070. Without affordable international finance, that transition will be slow, uneven and costly.

Unfinished task of adaptation

The other side of the climate equation is adaptation, or how societies adjust to the changes. Progress is faltering here as well. The UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2025 calculates that developing countries need $387 billion a year to build resilience to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and extreme weather. Current funding, overwhelmingly from public sources, is roughly one-fourth of that.

The report warns that the shortfall “threatens to undo decades of human development gains.” South Asia, already facing record heat and floods, is among the most vulnerable regions. For India, adaptation is no longer a side issue but central to economic planning, from urban infrastructure to agriculture and insurance, among others.

Brazil, the host of COP 30, has made adaptation a core theme. “What has shifted dramatically? Extreme climate events are getting closer and closer,” said André Corrêa do Lago, president-designate of COP30. Many of these climate impacts could have been mitigated “if adaptation policies had been integrated into infrastructure planning,” he said.

Shifting geopolitics

This summit also unfolds against an unsettled political backdrop. The return of Donald Trump to the White House has seen the United States withdraw again from the Paris Agreement, disrupting global climate co-operation. Trump’s rhetoric on “unfair one-sided Paris climate accord rip off” has strengthened fossil-fuel interests and weakened support for concessional finance. With Washington’s focus turning inward, the reform of multilateral development banks and the scaling-up of low-cost lending may stall.

This retreat by the US is forcing new alignments. The European Union, China, Brazil and India are emerging as pragmatic partners on climate finance and technology transfer. India’s presidency of the G20 and its One Sun One World One Grid initiative positions it as a bridge between the global North and South, a role that could prove decisive in Belém.

India’s climate diplomacy has many positives to showcase. Its renewable-energy capacity has crossed 200 GW, its green hydrogen mission is underway, and its per-capita emissions remain less than half the global average. The State of Climate Action 2025 lists India among the few large economies showing signs of decoupling growth from emissions. It will also unveil its National Adaptation Plan during the summit.

At COP30, India is likely to push three points: the need for reliable low-cost finance, fair burden-sharing across economies, and a strong focus on adaptation backed by grants rather than loans. These themes resonate across the Global South, where climate responsibility is viewed through the lens of equity and development. India’s challenge is to lead this coalition while keeping dialogue open with major economies, whose markets, technology and capital remain vital for the country’s transition.

As multiple UN agencies have noted, the climate process is entering a phase where trust is as important as targets. The emissions gap report makes it clear that time is running short, and every year of delay adds to the eventual cost of recovery. The update on national pledges shows that while progress is visible, it is far too slow.

Expectations from Belém summit

Belém will test whether a consensus-driven UN system can still deliver meaningful results in a multipolar world. Can climate finance be made predictable when donor budgets are stretched and global politics increasingly fractious? Can the UN retain credibility when its own targets appear out of reach?

Belém, on the Amazon basin, is both a symbol and a signal. The Amazon’s forests are among the planet’s largest carbon reservoirs, yet they continue to shrink under pressure from fire and deforestation. Hosting COP30 in the Brazilian Amazon is a reminder that climate change is not just abstract negotiation but a lived reality for communities and ecosystems.

For India and the Global South, this climate summit is a moment to assert that growth and climate action must walk together. Finance is the thread that ties them. Without credible funding, there can be no transition that is both fast and fair. As delegates gather in Belém, the question is no longer about ambition but delivery. The world has drawn down its climate credit. What happens next will decide whether the Paris Agreement remains a living framework, or a broken promise.