How can India still qualify for the T20 World Cup semi-final?

India's captain Virat Kohli, right, reacts as he shakes hands with New Zealand's captain Kane Williamson after losing the toss ahead of the Cricket Twenty20 World Cup match between New Zealand and India in Dubai, UAE, Sunday, Oct. 31, 2021. (AP Photo/Aijaz Rahi)

put their chances of qualifying into the semi-finals in serious doubt. India started as tournament favourites, or at least as one of them, but are now on the brink of a humiliating exit. India’s performance thus far is an eerie reminder of what unfolded in the 2019 ODI World Cup and the 2016 T20 World Cup as New Zealand humbled India in another ICC tournament courtesy of a stellar performance with bat and ball. Perhaps it was telling that a makeshift opener, sent in to maximise the powerplay overs, was responsible for New Zealand taking another hit at India's already pathetic net run rate.

India started their T20 World Cup campaign with a loss to Pakistan. Up until then, India had gotten the better of them at major ICC tournaments. But Pakistan were able to break that jinx and they did so with authority as they made India’s batting and bowling look less than average.

With the two losses, India now sit at fifth position behind Pakistan, Afghanistan, New Zealand and Namibia. With just three games to go, it makes India’s chances at qualifying for the semi-finals in serious doubt. But as Shah Rukh Khan’s famous dialogue in the Bollywood gangster-film Don goes, its ‘na mushkil hain, na mumkin’ (it is neither difficult nor possible!).

India can qualify outright if,

New Zealand loses to Namibia and Scotland, Afghanistan lose both their matches to India and New Zealand and India win all three of their remaining fixtures

India can qualify with a superior net run rate if,

Scenario 1: Afghanistan lose to New Zealand and India, New Zealand lose at least one more match and India beat Namibia and Scotland by huge margins to make their net run rate better than New Zealand

Scenario 2: New Zealand lose to Afghanistan and India beat Afghanistan, Namibia and Scotland by high margins so that their net run rate is better than New Zealand and Afghanistan.

India will not qualify for semi-finals if,

India lose one more match

More than anything, it all boils down to net run rate. India are currently at -1.609 while New Zealand is at +0-765 and Afghanistan are miles ahead with +3.097. India will need humongous victories against Scotland, Namibia and Afghanistan if they are to save themselves from going down in the group stages.

India’s remaining fixtures

India v Afghanistan, Abu Dhabi – Wednesday 3 November

India v Scotland, Dubai – Friday 5 November

India v Namibia, Dubai – Monday 8 November