The current earnings season has certainly been better than previous expectations.
Globally, there is a confidence over the growth trajectory of emerging markets and India remains one of the fastest growing emerging markets (EMs), according to analysts at JPMorgan.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Sunil Garg of JP Morgan Securities says the best among EMs currently is relatively cheap China, which is reversing its downward trend. Relatively, India has been underperforming the other EMs.
On India, Garg says a good strategy would be to focus on companies which stand to gain from domestic opportunities as India's economic cycle is turning for the better.
Garg says he continues to see rotational opportunities as the main plays, with main trades being underweight on India, China likely to go nowhere, continue to prefer consumer discretionary versus staples, technology over financials and commodity sectors to remain challenged.
For the Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, the weighting in China will be reduced by two percentage points to neutral, while the overweight in India and the out-of-the-index allocation in Vietnam will be increased by a further one percentage point each, said Chris Wood, CLSA.
Given the weak set up on monthly charts, Sunil Garg of JPMorgan sees any rallies as selling opportunities. According to him, the Nifty support is seen around 7,600 on the downside.
Sunil Garg of JPMorgan says monsoon is clearly causing disappointments but the fact remains despite a few rate cuts since the beginning of the year, credit growth has not reponded.
"For now, 8000 is a critical level for the index although base case is bearish with meaningful downside," Sunil Garg of JPMorgan said.
With May US non-farm payrolls pushing the 3-month moving average for jobs above 200,000, Sakthi Siva of Credit Suisse believes Fed tightening is back on the agenda with Credit Suisse Economics team looking at September for the first rate hike.
Sunil Garg of JPMorgan said that weak trends for banks will continue in coming days but select IT and pharma stocks look attractive. He is also bullish on a couple of metal stocks that are looking good after the recent correction.
According to Neelkanth Mishra, Credit Suisse, the April sell-off has been broad-based. He stays overweight on private banks, consumption, cement & IT.
Adrian Mowat, managing director, chief Asian and emerging market equity strategist, JPMorgan said this is a positive surprise and will make people buy the market.
“Our analysis suggests more downside risks across Asian markets. In absolute terms, we see broad-based downside risks, particularly in India and the ASEAN,†says Sunil Garg, JPMorgan.
JP Morgan is currently overweight on India and China and feels a slight correction will present a good entry point.
Sunil Garg of JPMorgan remains constructive on global equities, especially Asian markets. He feels Indian market provides the cleanest and clearest opportunity to buy right now as it is “cyclically and structurally†strong.
Sunil Garg of JP Morgan expects economic growth recovery to continue along with global liquidity and commodity prices being supportive for the Indian markets in the second half of this year.
Fed's dovish stand, which points to a more benign liquidity environment, is pushing Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) towards India. At home, country-specific factors such as the Reserve Bank governor Raghuram Rajan's move towards easing liquidity is boosting confidence.
Fed‘s trimming of growth forecast has led to a reversal in view once again with focus shifting to emerging markets, away from the developed markets. Sunil Garg, managing director of JPMorgan Securities sees the rupee going below 60 per USD in the near-term.
During the Iraq war, interest rates were falling and the markets rebounded almost as soon as the war started. As far as India goes, Sunil Garg feels rupee right now is undervalued. But rising oil prices and risks to portfolio outflows could lead to further depreciation.
Ridham Desai of Morgan Stanley says that last week, the brokerage house trimmed banks by 200 bps. Now the firm takes its position down by a further 300 bps, he adds.
JPMorgan Securities‘ Sunil Garg feels PSU banks definitely look attractive along with the NBFCs. He sees easing some asset quality pressure going ahead.
Blaming fundamental headwinds in Asian markets, Sunil Garg, managing director, Head- Asia Banks & Financial Services, JP Morgan, says the weakness in emerging markets is not externally driven.
Even though the US saw two big events last night, Sunil Garg of JPMorgan Securities believes that the situation in Europe is more worrying.
Ever since the US Federal Reserve made its statement last night, risk assets have seen a boost. Indian equities were in the green today after almost five days of trading in the red. According to Sunil Garg, Head of Asia-Pacific Equity Research at JP Morgan, the Fed’s statement has calmed nervous markets.