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On his inauguration day on January 20, Trump announced that the US will roll out an America First Trade Policy.
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Speaking in an interview with Moneycontrol, Chinoy said that India must balance domestic growth concerns with global economic uncertainties while ensuring macroeconomic stability.
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Inflation in India is uncomfortably sticky. As of now it will be a closed call for RBI in its next MPC meet. It will be prudent to do one more rate hike for RBI. India should not prematurely stop rate hike and be surprised later.
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The rupee surged to a fresh 16-month high on Wednesday opening at Rs 65.40 for a dollar. The Indian currency was also the best performing currency in the world. The gain was led by strong FPI buying on Tuesday following BJP's landslide victory in Uttar Pradesh.
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"Possibly we could see some impact in Q4 numbers, they could be a little lower than Q3 numbers. We are not going to revise the projections because we are at 6.6 percent [GDP growth] for the full year and I think the fourth quarter number possibly could reflect some amount of the impact of demonetisation," Soumya Kanti Ghosh said.
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Ahead of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) meeting on February 8, the question doing the rounds is whether the Central Bank will cut rates or hold its decision to do so in the meet next week. Economist Pronab Sen said that growth will be muted for a while and he expects RBI to cut interest rates by 25 bps.
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In a pre-Budget discussion on CNBC-TV18, Sajjid Chinoy, Asia Economist at JPMorgan, A Prasanna, Economist at ICICI Securities and Rathin Roy, Director and CEO, NIPFP listed their views on how the policy framework should be this year.
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Sajjid Chinoy of JPMorgan and A Prasanna of I-Sec PD shared their readings and outlook on the two fundamental numbers of inflation and Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
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Though a bit of recovery is likely on the back of attractive valuations, overall the market is expected to be rangebound for not only the week but also for fortnight due to less volumes at FIIs desk, experts say.
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In a panel discussion on CNBC-TV18, JP Morgan's top experts listed their views on topics ranging from the recent macroeconomic developments to what the equity market holds for the coming year.
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"I will be surprised by two cuts till December, but one cut looks certain," says Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist at JPMorgan.
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In the India Investor Summit 2016, CNBC-TV18 will get you an exclusive access to the JP Morgan top team that includes names like Kalpana Morparia, Adrian Mowat, Sunil Garg, James Sullivan, Jahangir Aziz and Sajjid Chinoy.
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Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said the government is committed to structural reforms and other measures mentioned in Budget. "The 4 percent inflation target has demonstrated the government‘s commitment to undertake reform measures."
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Even as Parliamentarians unanimously ensured the passage of the GST Amendment Bill late Wednesday, some economist says the government still has a long way to go ahead in terms of a proper GST implementation on April 1, 2017.
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In an interview with CNBC-TV18, JPMorgan Economist Sajjid Chinoy talked about his expectations from the CPI and IIP data scheduled for release later today, and what he makes of speculation revolving around the appointment of new RBI governor.
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India, who is not insulated from Brexit, is likely to be cushioned on back on strong fundamentals, says Sajjid Chinoy of JPMorgan.
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CNBC-TV18 has constituted its own citizens monetary policy committee to shadow the Reserve Bank of India's policy. At the inaugural panel meet, members agreed that the RBI will keep its rates unchanged.
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With food inflation contracting nearly 500 bps over last one year, Chinoy says there is growing conviction that some structural fixes have played out well.
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Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist, HSBC, says inflation could be much higher—almost 5.5 percent— than the 4.5-5 percent forecast in the survey.
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The CPI data has been consecutively hardening for the past four months and December is the fifth month. It has risen from levels of around 3.7 percent in July of 2015
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Banks have so far passed on only some part of the RBI's repo rate cut from 2015 but going forward. there is hope.
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Govt needs to be praised for keeping extent of MSP increase subdued, says Sajjid Chinoy, Asia Economics, JPMorgan
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Experts believe the central bank will pause for a while now before one can see any rate cut in the near-future.
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Agriculture, as a percent of GDP, has fallen from 30 percent in 1990 to 18 percent now but the number of people depending on the sector hasn't fallen at the same rate. In a CNBC-TV18 interview, experts dissected what is wrong with the sector.
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Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley says the market has steadfastly rewarded quality since elections, something to which it was endeared in the post-crisis bear market.
