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Balanco's reading of the chart suggests that Nifty 50 may test the 200-DMA in the next month. This level also happens to be the lower end of the uptrend channel traced from the 2023 lows.
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"We are not seeing major signs of weakness (on Nifty 50) and in the month of July, largecaps are making a comeback compared to the midcaps", Balanco said.
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Discussing the US stock market, which has been hitting new highs almost daily, Balanco noted that the market's gains are becoming more concentrated, a typical sign of maturity
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As BoJ’s announcement of loosening grip on yields pulls down the Yen’s gains, market expert Balanco sees a correction happening across risk assets if the Yen goes below key support levels.
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Momentum and breadth confirmation of a break above the 8,994-9,191 resistance zone would trigger the bullish implication of the 2015-to-date trading range.
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Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Laurence Balanco, Global Technical Analyst at brokerage firm CLSA, said a short-term pullback will be followed by further gains for the index.
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The Nifty has traced out an impressive long-term uptrend with the index set to extend its trend as price action tests overhead resistance provided by the March/September 2015 all-time highs at the 8,994-9,191 area, Laurence Balanco of CLSA adds.
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Nevertheless, as long as price action remains above the rising 50-DMA, currently at 8,396 the benefit of doubt should be given to the newly formed uptrend and the ultimate break above 8,989-9,191 resistance, Laurence Balanco of CLSA says, adding above the all-time highs the next upside target is at 10,350-10,370.
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Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Laurence Balanco of CLSA said that India and Philippines are among the better Asian markets that are immune to shocks arising from Brexit. Neither of these markets will retest their January lows, he said.
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Laurence Balanco of CLSA in his note ahead of the Brexit outcome says that from India point of view, any pullback for whatever reason it happens, if Nifty slips below 7,800, it is a big buying opportunity.
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A move back to the old resistance/now support at the 7,900-8,000 area in the short term should be seen as an attractive buying opportunity, says CLSA technical analyst Laurence Balanco
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Key short-term support is seen at 7,661-7,700 provided by the 50- day moving average, writes CLSA technical analyst Laurence Balanco
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A test of key short-term support at 7,533-7,550 provided by the 50-DMA is likely and a break below this level would open the door for a test of next chart support at 7,257, says Laurence Balanco of CLSA.
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According to Laurence Balanco of CLSA, this rebound is unlikely to break above the cited downtrend resistance with a retest and probable break of the February lows likely
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Laurence Balanco, CLSA feels the Nifty is staging a rebound rally with initial resistance at 7,717 followed by major trend resistance at the 200-DMA and upper boundary of the cited downtrend channel at the 8,156-8,160 area.
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Additionally, it's worth noting head-and-shoulders topping pattern which supports a downside target of 6,900-7,000, Laurence Balanco, CLSA feels.
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Looking at the MSCI India (USD) against MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan, it is worth noting the market has traced out a short-term double top pattern which sets India up for a period of underperformance against region in coming weeks, says Balanco.
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Nifty could test 7500 levels on downside: CLSA
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While these short term extremes do not rule out further losses it does indicate a level of capitulation in the near term and provides the platform for a snapback rally, Balanco says in his note
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According to Laurence Balanco, CLSA, there is little change to the Nifty's outlook as price action continues to stabilise with the rally off the June 12 bullish price/momentum divergence low, working its way towards next chart resistance at the 8,800-8,823 area.
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The CNX Banks index has formed a bearish price/momentum divergence and a potential double top pattern, says CLSA's technical analyst Laurence Balanco
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“Our analysis suggests more downside risks across Asian markets. In absolute terms, we see broad-based downside risks, particularly in India and the ASEAN,†says Sunil Garg, JPMorgan.
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Laurence Balanco of CLSA says, "Relative to the regional benchmark India continues to work its way higher following the breakout form the 2010-2013 downtrend channel. Further relative gains are likely in the coming months. An overweight stance is maintained."
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Laurence Balanco of CLSA says after underperforming the MSCI World since early September, the MSCI emerging market is attempting to form a double bottom pattern in relative terms. He also says MSCI India on an average has delivered 8 percent returns in December to February period historically.
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"Further relative gains are likely in the coming months. Technically strong stocks in India include names like Infosys, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, ONGC and Apollo Hospitals," says Laurence Balanco, CLSA.
