The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 98.770 in the morning trade from the previous close of 98.424.
For 2026, experts expects USD/INR to consolidate in a broad 88-91.50 range, with markets closely tracking trade talks and capital movements.
Given my understanding of the evolution of “underlying” inflation over the next few quarter, in the backdrop of the forecast headline inflation, there remains a concern that prices might be less than optimal for stable economic growth, Bhattacharya said.
Tariff differential is a factor shaping market perception. The US has imposed tariffs as high as 50% on Indian imports, significantly above many of its Asian counterparts, including Indonesia, leading to a sharp depreciation of the currency.
On December 19, the rupee staged a strong comeback, rising past the psychologically important 90-mark against the dollar to settle at its highest level in over two weeks
The currency has been under pressure in the last few weeks especially due to delay in the trade deal, which led to the currency hitting fresh record lows. On the other hand, the limited intervention by the RBI was also adding to the pain.
According to Bloomberg data, the rupee appreciated 0.67 percent on a single day, emerging as the best-performing currency among Asian peers. Over the week, it gained 0.86 percent, and since the RBI began heavy interventions on December 16, the currency has strengthened by 1.54 percent.
Going ahead, the next chapter for the rupee will hinge on three critical variables: the trajectory of India-US trade talks, portfolio flows in the face of elevated US yields, and the central bank’s appetite for intervention if volatility spikes.
The domestic currency opened at 90.3700 against the US dollar, as compared to 90.3775 against the greenback at previous close
According to Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMC, FII flows are likely to return in 2026 as global rate cycles ease, US growth softens, and doubts grow around overhyped AI trades elsewhere.
The central bank increased its short dollar forward positions by $6 billion in September, marking the first rise in six months. This marks an important move by the central bank when the Indian rupee has been depreciating sharply and support was needed without reducing the forex reserves. Usually, forward position by the RBI helps the currency to cool off a bit.
The rupee has slipped 5.97% this year, making it the worst performing currency in Asia followed by the Indonesian rupiah, down 3.53%, and the Philippine peso, which has declined 1.37%
Currency markets have no natural anchor like equity markets do. So, movements can overshoot in the short term. However, once volatility becomes excessive, the RBI will step in, Mishra said.
The spillover of the currency depreciation was also seen on the equity markets, which ended lower for the second consecutive day on December 16.
The near leg or spot leg is on December 18, 2025, and the far leg is on December 18, 2028.
On December 15, the currency slipped to fresh record low of 90.7850, extending its year-to-date decline to about 6 percent
The local currency has surpassed the psychological level of 90 on December 3 and yet again recorded a low 90.5625 against the US dollar. This is despite India’s resilient macroeconomic conditions.
Malhotra, who took charge as RBI Governor on December 11, 2024, has overseen a 5.71% slide in the rupee during his first year in office, marking the Indian currency as the worst performer among its Asian peers.
Beyond the political noise, BIS exchange rate data exposes the true scale of competitive devaluations, showing why China's surplus is a policy outcome while India's deficit reveals a growth story
According to Bloomberg data, the rupee still remains the worst performing currency in Asia after the Indonesian rupiah and the Philippine peso
As per estimates by the experts, this auction will approximately inject Rs 45,000 crore liquidity to the banking system.
The local currency hit the all time low in this week and crossed 90-mark against the US dollar on persistent equity outflows and uncertainty around the India-US trade deal.
The central bank revised down the CPI inflation by 60 basis points (Bps) for FY26 to 2 percent from 2.6 percent projected earlier.
The local currency was trading at 89.98 against the dollar after opening at 89.85
A Moneycontrol poll expects the MPC to cut repo rate by 25 bps, drawing comfort from the low CPI inflation print