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Investor attention next week (starting from September 29) will focus on scheduled speeches from several Fed officials, with markets currently pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts in upcoming meetings.
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Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, particularly with Ukraine continuing drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, which could keep oil prices volatile in the near term.
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With the September cut largely priced in, commodity markets are focused on Powell’s tone and any forward-looking signals regarding the Fed’s stance through the remainder of 2025, especially in light of a persistent slowdown in labour demand.
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All eyes now turn to the US Core PCE data, which is expected to rise 0.3 percent MoM in July, pushing the annual rate to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent, further away from the Fed’s 2 percent target.
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Caution ahead of Trump-Putin talks and mixed US data kept traders wary, while growing confidence in a 25 basis point rate cut supported markets.
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Looking ahead, commodity markets moves could be influenced by the outcome of the US-China trade deal, with their 90-day truce deadline approaching on August 12, as well as the potential Trump-Putin meeting.
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Commodity traders will also closely watch China’s Politburo meeting, expected by month-end, for signals on the country’s economic policy trajectory for the rest of the year.
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Next week is data-heavy, with markets bracing for key Chinese economic indicators as well as US inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment data, for insights into the monetary policy outlook.
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Final PMI readings from major global economies will be closely watched but US jobs report will be a key focus, as softer labour market data could strengthen expectations for an early rate cut.
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Looking ahead, traders may brace for heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with Israel and Iran continuing to exchange missile strikes. Iran’s foreign minister stated that Tehran is willing to consider diplomacy only once Israel halts its aggression.
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Trade tensions remain a key risk despite a provisional US-China trade truce reached in London. Markets await formal confirmation from Presidents Trump and Xi. Meanwhile, negotiations with the EU, India, Japan, and other partners are still ongoing.
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Commodity markets now turn to the upcoming US labour report for policy signals, following early signs of a rebound in Q2 with modest gains in consumer spending and subdued April inflation. The ECB policy meeting, where a 25 bps rate cut is widely expected, and final PMI data will also be watched.
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Gold price may continue its positive trend in the coming week, but may encounter initial resistance at Rs 97,600, which bulls may break and sustain above, allowing prices to approach all-time highs. On the other side, initial support is at Rs 94,000, followed by Rs 92,800.
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Next week, commodity markets will closely monitor key Chinese economic data and flash PMI releases. Speeches from several US Federal Reserve and UK MPC officials will also be watched for policy signals.
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On the data front, US consumer inflation and retail sales data will be key to watch. The Fed has recently warned of stagflation risks, so hotter-than-expected inflation coupled with weaker retail sales could further reduce the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
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Next week’s calendar is packed with key releases, including US jobs, first-quarter GDP, and the crucial inflation gauge, core PCE, all of which will be closely watched for clearer evidence on the state of the economy amid concerns that new tariffs is dampening growth and inflation outlook.
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The current rally in gold prices mirror the global economic uncertainties, fluctuating interest rates and geopolitical tensions. And as these factors look like they're here to stay, there's a possibility that the gold prices could again touch and then go beyond the Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams mark.
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The spotlight remains on US trade negotiations with the EU and China. President Trump has expressed optimism over-reaching agreements with both key partners, though he has yet to offer concrete details or a timeline.
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Next week, Chinese economic data will also be in focus, while the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its April meeting.
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Commodities were hit hard, with copper and crude oil falling more than 5 percent on Friday alone, and closing the week over 10 percent lower.
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While the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are expected to hold steady, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell’s remarks and the FOMC's economic projections.
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Short-term movements in oil prices will depend on whether the US increases or reduces sanctions, a decision likely influenced by Russia’s willingness to negotiate an end to its conflict with Ukraine.
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Looking ahead, commodity markets will turn their attention to key central bank decisions. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady in its upcoming meeting, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points.
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Commodity traders should be cautious of increased volatility due to fewer market participants and reduced market depth in new year week.
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In the spot market, gold has strong support near $2,600 per ounce, equivalent to Rs 75,650–75,700 per 10 grams on the MCX.
