On the data front, US weekly jobless claims and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, along with speeches from several FOMC officials, will be closely watched as investors seek clearer guidance on the timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate cut.
Markets will also watch the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump tariffs scheduled for February 20. The week ahead will be holiday-shortened with potentially thinner liquidity.
Following a string of labour market reports that largely surprised to the downside, attention now turns to the official non-farm payrolls report due February 11 as significant downward revisions could strengthen the case for future rate cuts.
Further downside pressure on precious metals may emerge early in the week as higher CME margins come into effect on Monday, February 2.
The precious metal had climbed more than 20% just this month, with some technical indicators pointing to a near-term price correction.
This year, silver prices have risen Rs 1,65,500, or 69.2 per cent, from Rs 2,39,000 per kg recorded at the end of last year.
With Iran warning that any attack would be treated as “all-out war,” markets remain alert to the risk of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global crude flows.
Next week, commodity traders will watch President Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos for further policy signals.
Markets are likely to open sharply on edge Monday after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, charging them with drug trafficking following a major military operation on Saturday.
On MCX, gold futures for February delivery climbed Rs 948, or 0.7 per cent, to Rs 1,36,752 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 15,639 lots
Attention will be on the FOMC meeting minutes and weekly US jobless claims.
With the upcoming holiday week likely to see thinner trading volumes, price action may be subdued.
While silver has taken the spotlight recently, the broader setup indicates that gold may be preparing for a catch-up phase, supported by both fundamentals and technical indicators.
Looking ahead, markets face a packed calendar of economic data and central bank decisions, keeping volatility elevated.
Commodities markets are preparing for a busy calendar of data releases and speech by Fed Chair Powell. Final PMI readings from major economies, US ADP employment data for November, September’s PCE inflation report, and the University of Michigan’s sentiment and inflation expectations surveys are all due this week.
Commodity market turbulence is expected to persist as traders now await a series of economic releases including US retail sales, producer price inflation, durable goods orders, and potentially preliminary third-quarter GDP and core PCE figures.
Looking ahead, commodity markets will turn their focus to a heavy slate of economic data due next week starting from November 17.
With limited economic data available due to the shutdown, the Fed’s policy path for December remains uncertain.
For money managers in emerging markets, gold’s surge is giving them another reason to stay bullish.
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Most importantly, with no weekend votes expected, the Senate's failure to pass funding bills on Friday means the shutdown will enter its sixth day on Monday. The ongoing data blackout, including the non-release of the official jobs report, clouds the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Investor attention next week (starting from September 29) will focus on scheduled speeches from several Fed officials, with markets currently pricing in two quarter-point rate cuts in upcoming meetings.
Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, particularly with Ukraine continuing drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, which could keep oil prices volatile in the near term.
With the September cut largely priced in, commodity markets are focused on Powell’s tone and any forward-looking signals regarding the Fed’s stance through the remainder of 2025, especially in light of a persistent slowdown in labour demand.
All eyes now turn to the US Core PCE data, which is expected to rise 0.3 percent MoM in July, pushing the annual rate to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent, further away from the Fed’s 2 percent target.