Moneycontrol deep dives into the GDP numbers for Q3 of FY 24 -the fine print behind 8.4% growth. Making sense of data perplexities. The wide gap between GDP and GVA. Can the growth momentum continue? Will Q4 growth be slower? The big economic message from the GDP numbers.
Speaking exclusively with Moneycontrol, Panagariya said: "Whenever the growth rate is high, there is an ecosystem alleging that there is a rigging the numbers. Such allegations are not made when the numbers are lower."
India exited the recession in the third quarter. However, growth was slower-than-expected and for the whole fiscal year, GDP is now expected to shrink 8 percent versus an earlier estimate of 7.7 percent.
The Congress today dubbed the GDP numbers as "surprising" and "highly suspect" that could dent India's global credibility and accused the prime minister and the finance minister of "misleading" the public.
Jaitley was responding to a question on a report in an international publication in which it was suggested that India's growth was 4.3 per cent if calculated on old methodology.
"Based on Q1 GDP numbers at 5.7 percent, we are now revising our forecast for the full fiscal growth to 5.78 percent," SBI Research's Soumya Kanti Ghosh said in a note
According to Karvy, the markets will be closely watching the developments from the US central banks and the rupee performance in the domestic market. Therefore, investors should remain cautious in the evening session. "One can remain on the selling side for gold," says the research firm.
Government sources tell CNBC-TV18's Aakansha Sethi that the growth rate for the April to June quarter will be below 5 percent.
Mahesh Vyas, MD & CEO, CMIE told CNBC-TV18 that monsoon has been good and he expects agricultural production to recover and industrial growth to improve significantly in second half of FY14. Further, Vyas sees a good probability of the IIP recovering during this year.
Emkay Commotrade has come out with its report on currency. According to the research firm, spot USDINR is likely to witness some corrective declines if prices failed to breach above 56.80 levels, towards 56.42 followed by 56.20 levels.
Taking cues from the massive fall in equities, rupee declined by 12 paise to end at 11-month low of 56.50 against the US dollar on Friday amid worries over India's current account deficit and GDP growth, which hit a decade low of 5 per cent in FY13.
Market expert PN Vijay of askpnvijay.com says, in an interview to CNBC-TV18, that the fall in every segment of the GDP is worrying . He added that the rupee's fall was inflationary and reduced chances of RBI easing rates.
Sarah Hewin of Standard Chartered says the dire risks that the market was concerned about this time last year have receded for the moment.
Mecklai Financial has come out with its report on commodities vs equities. Ongoing easing program by central banks and global economic slowdown will continue the divergence between CRB and MSCI ACWI Index, says the Mecklai Graph.
Taimur Baig of Deutsche Bank expects the current account deficit (CAD) to remain at 3-3.5 percent for two years. Recently, the government pegged that the current account deficit during this fiscal to be at 3.5 per cent of the GDP, which was much higher than expected levels.
Nirmal Bang has come out with its report on currency. According to the research firm, the rupee has largely been in a consolidation mode of late as investors await domestic GDP numbers and any hints of further quantitative easing from the US. The USDINR pair can trade in a range of 55.60-85 during the day.
Despite a lower GDP number the US markets have rallied at about 1-2% and strong earnings along with consumer sentiments have resulted in gains in the US Market. The European markets too were faring well yesterday. Bobby Rakhit, CEO, Inside Consulting talks about the global markets in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
The market started strong today, but closed on a tepid note below 5400. It was ONGC and Reliance, the two big oil stocks that bailed the index out today, says Udayan Mukherjee, managing editor, CNBC-TV18.
The last couple of days have seen more than a 100 point move on the Nifty, first down and then up. But it was a terrific bounce back yesterday, says CNBC-TV18's managing editor Udayan Mukherjee.
Reacting to the GDP numbers, portfolio manager PV Vijay says its time for the central bank to “pause” considering the GDP numbers as a sign of the economy slowing down. He believes the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been on a hawkish mode and now needs to review its stance.
The Bombay Stock Exchange benchmark Sensex recovered by over 104 points in opening trade today on emergence of selective buying by funds and retail investors amid a firming trend on other Asian bourses.
CNBC-TV18’s Udayan Mukherjee says the later half of the trade on Tuesday depends on the how the guidance on GDP numbers look like. However, he says, “The level of interest in participation is gone down quite clearly over the last few sessions.”