Cpi Inflation

Why is RBI dovish despite being optimistic on growth?

By holding rates, the RBI has effectively kept its options open to respond should tariff disruptions persist and pose downside risks to growth

Will RBI go for a 25 bps cut? Five factors to track in the October MPC review

Barclays said in a note that after a neutral pause in August, it sees the RBI MPC cutting policy repo rate by 25 bps on October 1, acknowledging that it is a close call versus a scenario of a dovish pause followed by a December cut.

Would it benefit the economy if RBI surprises market with a rate cut in October policy?

The MPC meeting which has started on September 29, will deliver its decision on the rate action on October 1.

Why August CPI inflation jump could be a false alarm for MPC

Headline CPI edges up to 2.07% after 10 straight months of decline, but GST relief and food deflation argue for further easing

GST reforms may cool inflation but RBI unlikely to rush into rate cuts, says MPC member Saugata Bhattacharya

The RBI central bank will take a data-driven approach, will assess the full spectrum of primary, secondary, and tertiary effects of the tax overhaul before altering the policy stance, Bhattacharya has said

GST reform push strengthens case for October rate cut, say experts

GST 2.0, which will likely see rates lowered on most goods and services, will cool inflation further, giving the RBI the room to ease monetary policy, they say

Proposed GST reforms by govt may cool inflation, open door for RBI rate easing: Experts

Experts said that the potential price relief could offer a positive support to consumption in H2FY26, particularly ahead of the festive season, when demand typically surges.

RBI holds rates: A well priced-in ‘pause’, a less priced-in ‘neutrality’

With trade negotiations still underway, assessing any growth-inflation impact right away is quite difficult. The RBI MPC had revised down its GDP growth estimate in February by 20 bps to 6.5 percent on-year, partly reflecting tariff-related risks, but uncertainty has accelerated since then.

Quick Take: RBI lowers its inflation projection, but has it missed the bus on policy action?

Why did the RBI choose to worry about a higher 1-year ahead inflation when the increase would be mostly statistical?

MPC meeting: CPI inflation to rise above RBI’s medium-term target in Q4

The RBI lowered its CPI inflation projection for FY26 to 3.1% from its earlier forecast of 3.7% on easing food prices and benign outlook

Chart of the Day | Inflation’s dual dance: RBI’s MPC faces a tightrope walk

CPI eases to 2.1 per cent, but core inflation at 4.72 per cent keeps the Reserve Bank cautious ahead of its policy call

Will RBI hold repo rate? 5 things to look out for in August MPC

The MPC is meeting at a time when retail inflation has remained lower than RBI’s medium term target of 4 percent and support is needed for growth revival amid tariff tensions.

MPC Poll | RBI may hold rates in August policy to assess new data on inflation

The central bank, so far has reduced the repo or the benchmark rate by 100 basis points (Bps) since February to aid growth, with 25 bps each in February and April respectively, and 50 bps in the June policy.

Sticky last-mile disinflation forces central banks in advance economies to hold rates: RBI bulletin

In their monetary policy meetings held in June and up to July 18, central banks of most advanced economies continued to hold or cut their policy rates

Will easing inflation pave the way for more rate cuts?

A few economists are of the view that even though easing inflation and outlook might prompt the central bank to cut rates, a pause in the August policy cannot be ruled out after the 50 bps rate cut in the June policy.

June inflation plunge sets stage for August MPC dilemma

With CPI inflation continuing to fall, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee faces a tough call: hold rates or continue pushing for growth?

'Meeting-by-meeting' decisions needed, given the uncertainty, says RBI MPC member Saugata Bhattacharya

Given the present, evolving, and likely continued elevated levels of uncertainty, rate actions will have to be based on incoming data and an assessment of the associated macro-financial environment, Saugata Bhattacharya said during an interview.

Inflation to determine further rate cut trajectory, says RBI MPC member Nagesh Kumar

In view of difficult external circumstances requiring support to economic growth, and a favourable inflationary outlook providing headroom for further rate cuts, the case for a 50 basis points cut in the repo rate had become stronger at the June MPC meeting and hence received wide support, Kumar said in an interview.

Rising crude oil prices warrants careful observation from RBI on inflation

Usually, as per economists, an increase of $10 per barrel on crude oil prices leads to about 0.4%-0.6% increase in inflation. Barclays in a report said that the sharp ~USD10/barrel increase in crude oil prices since the escalation in Iran-Israel conflict over the past week, if it continues, would put further upside pressure on prices in June.

Banking Central| Inflation’s down but don’t pop the champagne yet