No amount of liquidity - and rate cuts – will help unless the structural problems in the NBFC sector are resolved
At the end of Q3, a whopping 41 percent of corporate debt is with companies whose earnings are less than their interest outgo. Credit Suisse's MD and Head of Research Ashish Gupta shares his detailed analysis with CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh on a special show - Indianomics.
While Axis Bank clocked a net profit of Rs 579.57 crore for the three quarters ending December 31, 2016, 23 public sector banks managed a combined profit of Rs 492.53 crore.
Key business parameters looked better for SBI sequentially – Net interest Income (the difference between interest income and expenses) grew by 7.7%, an improvement over the 1.3% that was reported in the previous quarter.
The Reserve Bank is expected to extend the deadline for asset quality review (AQR) of lenders by a few months because of the unusual situation in the financial sector following demonetisation, bankers said.
Private sector banks are likely to see about 5 per cent uptick in earnings while profit of state-owned lenders may drop 12.7 per cent for the second quarter of this fiscal, a report said.
"Consequent upon the capital infusion exercise for the current year, 75 percent of the amount collected for each bank is being released now to provide liquidity support for lending operations as also to enable banks to raise funds from the market," says the government in its release.
Spread of credit is also expected to improve as more money will be in hands of people, says Kenneth Andrade, Founder & CIO of Old Bridge Capital Management.
Allaying apprehension of bad loans in public sector banks, Finance Minister Jaitley on June 29 said NPA situation is under control as economic conditions are showing signs of improvement
The RBI deputy governor said recapitalisation bonds may be one of several ideas on the table, adding that the very first transition of a nationalised bank into a public bank was done using recapitalisation bonds.
Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan on June 20 hoped that once the clean-up of public sector banks is over, they will start focusing on small and medium enterprises, which have been ignored during the past couple of years by them
After building in the capital raising, the brokerage increased its target price by 17 percent to Rs 1,325 driven by increase in book value per share due to the capital raise, though it cut FY17-19 earnings per share estimates by 6-10 percent due to fund raising.
Public sector Andhra Bank reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 557.99 crore for the fiscal ended March 2016, down 15 percent from a year ago on higher provisioning for bad loans
"The goal through this effort is to ensure that our banks are vibrant, competitive and can compete with the world's best," says Jayant Sinha, MoS, Finance.
"Banks should not slow down their clean-up exercise which they are doing now. Even if the required classification and provision happens, I'd strongly urge them to continue to keep aside money, keep on improving their PCR till it reaches a strong level," SS Mundra said at a seminar here.
Expect the bank's loan book to grow by 10 percent going forward, says Usha Ananthasubramanian, MD & CEO, Punjab National Bank.
State-run Dena Bank on May 16 reported a net loss of Rs 326.39 crore in the quarter to March due to increase in provisions for bad loans which soared 200 percent to Rs 1,094 crore.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, Andhra Bank MD and CEO Suresh N Patel said the bank had fully complied with the Reserve Bank of India's asset quality review guidelines that had called for stricter provisioning of doubtful accounts.
Strategic debt restructuring is a useful tool, said Kochhar, adding, the bank has successfully managed to find a buyer for one of the companies it had invoked the restructure for.
Jyoti Ghosh, managing director at State Bank of Bikaner & Jaipur said as part of the asset quality review the bank focussed even on smaller accounts and managed to recover Rs 384 crore from about 91,000 accounts in FY16.
There will be more stress on asset quality this quarter, says Siddharth Purohit of Angel Broking.
The rally in equity markets can be put down to government reforms like UDAY. They have reacted to a good monsoon forecast, says Rashesh Shah, Chairman & CEO Of Edelweiss Financial Services.
In a virtual confirmation of recent reports that the Reserve Bank of India had trimmed the list of companies that should be included in banks' asset quality review, Union Bank Chairman and Managing Director Arun Tiwari says the move should be looked at as a "correction" of stricter norms prescribed earlier.
Bank shares have witnessed a sharp move following a report that said the RBI may go a little easy on its asset quality review in the fourth quarter and after a brokerage report called the bottom for the steel cycle. But analysts have doubts what this may mean for stocks.
On the topic of keeping the names of defaulters confidential, Raghuram Rajan said that public shaming is not wise because it is not clear whether a credit default was intentional or not.