State Bank of India expects better profitability in Q4 as well, led by better asset-quality trend, one-off gains from SBI Cards and lower tax.
Asset quality is expected to be improving sequentially as well as quarterly, but slippages may remain elevated.
We expect Nifty EPS to grow by 14 percent for FY20 and clock in an EPS figure of Rs 554 for FY20.
Earnings downgrade continued in the September quarter but there were no fresh negatives in terms of outlook in management commentaries.
Brokerages remain bullish on the lender after Q2 net profit trebles and expect a 49 percent upside in the stock in the next one year.
Motilal Oswal, which has buy call on the stock, expects a loan growth of 13 percent YoY, led by growth in retail book and deposit growth at 8 percent YoY.
Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to increase by 10.6 percent Y-o-Y (up 0.8 percent Q-o-Q) to Rs. 23,124 crore, according to KR Choksey.
Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to increase by 10.2 percent Y-o-Y (up 0.4 percent Q-o-Q) to Rs. 23,033.4 crore, according to ICICI Direct.
Brokerages retain a positive stance, but slash price target on higher slippages. They see scope for higher credit cost in FY20 and downside risks to earnings from a larger watch list.
Brokerages feel that with the expected fall in slippages, asset quality should improve.
Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to increase by 2.5 percent Y-o-Y (down 2.7 percent Q-o-Q) to Rs. 22,340 crore, according to Sharekhan.
Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to increase by 3 percent Y-o-Y (down 2 percent Q-o-Q) to Rs. 22,520.7 crore, according to Kotak.
On the asset quality front, slippages to non-performing assets (NPA) was contained at Rs 7,500 crore, which was encouraging
Asset quality on sequential basis is expected to improve with slippages either likely to be steady or lower compared to previous quarter, brokerages said
NBFCs had a marginally better quarter than Q3 as liquidity eased for retail players. Slowdown in auto sales and increase in incremental cost of funding will weigh on Q4 performance
But non-auto consumer discretionary companies like Titan and Zee Entertainment are expected to report relatively stronger growth, Deutsche said.
Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to increase by 14.8 percent Y-o-Y (up 1.1 percent Q-o-Q) to Rs. 22,938.6 crore, according to Motilal Oswal.
Net Interest Income (NII) is expected to increase by 18.4 percent Y-o-Y (up 4.2 percent Q-o-Q) to Rs. 23,654.4 crore, according to Kotak.
Kumar said that the exposure is secured, serviceable and the cash flows are positive
Asset quality should be stable as slippages would be largely similar QoQ and as there are not too large recoveries, said Prabhudas Lilladher
CLSA said earnings for smaller private banks, like IndusInd Bank and Yes Bank, may be impacted by provisioning for stressed loans and slower growth in corporate banking fees
Elara Capital does not expect any new large corporate loan account to slip barring re-classification of IL&FS
Input cost pressure is being increasingly absorbed by companies as the demand environment in weakening