Motilal Oswal's research report on HDFC Life Insurance
HDFC Life Insurance (HDFCLIFE) in 4QFY24 reported lower-than-expected margins at 26.1% with total APE at INR47.3b (broadly in line with estimates). Total APE declined 8% YoY to INR47.3b in 4QFY24 as Non-PAR declined 16% YoY; this was offset by a 25% surge in ULIP products. VNB margins at 26.1% was 60bp lower than expected with absolute VNB flat at INR 12.3b. EV grew 20% YoY to INR475b. 4QFY24 PAT at INR 4.1b was 6% lower than our estimates and saw a 15% YoY growth. For FY24, APE was flat YoY at INR 47.3b, whereas absolute VNB declined 5% YoY to INR 35b. For FY24, overall PAT grew 15% YoY to INR 15.7b. We have cut our APE growth and VNB margin assumptions based on 4QFY24 performance and the guidance.
Outlook
We now estimate HDFCLIFE to deliver ~16% VNB CAGR over FY24-26 and margin to be steady in the range of 26-27%. We reiterate our Neutral rating on the stock with a TP of INR670 (premised on 2.3x Mar’26E EV).
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