Emkay Global Financial's research report on ICICI Pru Life
In Q4FY23, ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) delivered impressive results, exceeding both our expectations and the company's target of doubling FY19 VNB in FY23. However, in the backdrop of taxation changes related to high-ticket, non-linked policies, this strong show in Q4 does not allay concerns over the growth and profitability outlook in FY24 and beyond. Looking ahead, on one hand, taxation changes will affect the high-ticket, non-linked product growth and, on the other, regulatory changes in commissions, EoM and banca partnership limits might drive the intensified competition in banca and partnership channels. Overall, the outlook on growth and profitability is much sober than the solid recent past; however, the undemanding valuation (FY24E P/EV of 1.6x) appears to be pricing in the challenges ahead. As IPRU and other peers navigate through the changing regulatory and taxation landscape, shares will likely move laterally. The change in top management, with Mr. Anup Bagchi replacing Mr. N S Kanan as MD and CEO in one key event for IPRU in FY24, and the charting out of the strategic path by Mr. Bagchi will be closely watched out.
Outlook
To reflect Q4FY23 developments, we have tweaked our FY24-25 estimates slightly. We reiterate our Buy call on the stock with our revised Mar-24 TP of Rs550.
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