The relevance of regional parties is possibly at its strongest in about two decades. (Photos: Pexels)
Regional and small parties appear to be in favour in the north-eastern state of
Manipur this election season, having slowly and surely gained ground in recent years.
After an almost two-decade absence, small parties made a comeback to the government following the assembly elections in 2017. Although the Congress won 28 of the state’s 60 assembly seats, the BJP with 21 seats formed the first coalition government in the state with support from the National People’s Party (NPP), the Naga People’s Front (NPF) and the Lok Janshakti Party.
Although the coalition government completed a full term, it faced some instability when both the NPP and the NPF – which won four seats each in 2017 – threatened to withdraw support in 2019 and 2020. All the parties in the alliance have decided to go solo in the ongoing assembly elections.
The NPP and the NPF are relatively new. The NPP was founded by the late PA Sangma of Meghalaya, who was speaker of the Lok Sabha, in January 2013. The party is now led by his son Conrad Sangma, who is the chief minister of Meghalaya. The Shillong-based party was the first from the northeast to be declared a national political party. Outside its home state, it has contested elections in Nagaland and Manipur.
The NPF came into existence as a political party in Nagaland in early 2000 and had not made much of an impression in Manipur for some time. However, the tide seems to be changing now for the party. The current president of the NPF is Shurhozelie Liezietsu.
Growing relevance
Unlike in earlier elections, several top political leaders made a beeline for Manipur this time and started campaigning for their parties six months ahead of the polling schedule. Among them were the leaders of the NPP and the NPF and the chief ministers of Meghalaya and Nagaland.
No chief minister from a neighbouring state or regional party chief had campaigned as much in Manipur before. According to analysts, this suggests that regional parties have started to gain ground in the state and that they can’t be taken lightly in state elections.
The relevance of regional parties is possibly at its strongest in about two decades. Back in the 1980s and 1990s, the Manipur People’s Party (MPP) was one of the most formidable political parties in the state.
The MPP’s Mohammed Alimuddin became the first chief minister of Manipur after it attained full statehood in 1972. Alimuddin, who represented Lilong constituency, served as chief minister for two short terms – from March 1972 to March 1973 and from March 1974 to July 1974.
The other chief minister from the MPP was RK Ranbir Singh, who was in office from February 1990 to January 1992. However, from 2000 till the 2017 election, no major regional or state-level party has come to power in Manipur.
This time around, the NPP is seeking to consolidate its position. It is contesting in 38 seats compared with 20 last time. The NPF, on the other hand, is going ahead cautiously and confining itself to its traditional base of 10 seats. With its election plank pertaining primarily to Naga issues, the NPF’s influence and reach is limited to predominantly Naga-inhabited areas.
The inability of the big national parties to form a government on their own – as experienced five years ago – has boosted the confidence of regional parties, analysts said. This time, too, the Congress and the BJP may have to woo smaller parties if they fall short of the numbers needed to form the government on their own.
According to Atou Liezietsu, a senior member of the NPF, the chances of its 10 candidates winning – including the four sitting MLAs – are high.
“This time, we will improve,” he said. “In the previous election, the party leaders could not give time due to the crisis in the Nagaland assembly, so we got only four. This time the leaders are giving time, energy and campaigning in Manipur.”
NPF could be kingmaker
Unlike other years, there were many aspiring candidates who sought to contest the elections this time, although not all could be accommodated.
“We had to drop many good candidates. They are genuine party supporters and they did not apply to any other party,” said Liezietsu.
Party chief Shurhozelie Liezietsu indicated during the campaign that the NPF would go with the BJP after the ongoing election. He said the NPF had saved the Biren Singh-led government on two occasions and this arrangement would continue if things went well.
According to senior journalist Paojel Chaoba, in Manipur, it is not only about the party, “it also largely depends on the candidates’ personal strength and influence in his/her constituency.”
Parties are not only fielding more candidates this time, they are also picking those who are most likely to win.
“Watch out for NPF – they are going to be the kingmaker, like in the previous 2017 election,” Chaoba said.
The BJP, which aims to win 40 seats in Manipur, may get 15-20 seats and will likely require the support of a smaller regional party like the NPF to form the government, observed Chaoba.
The NPF is also rallying with its Naga voters for peace talks. Expectations of the Naga peace talks had shot up after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s historic August 2015 announcement of the framework agreement, over which there has been little progress.
The NPP was the first to come out with a strong stand on the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, which grants special powers to the Indian armed forces to maintain public order in disturbed areas. The party’s promise to work towards the repeal of AFSPA has caught the attention of voters and observers.
The BJP was the last among the major parties to release its candidate list and to come out with its manifesto, which analysts said was puzzling for a ruling party. The party’s manifesto was silent about AFSPA.
Regional and state parties in Manipur have never had a sustained presence in governing the state. But they may be in a favourable position now, analysts said. However, their survival depends heavily on their leadership. As long as the leadership lasts, the party stays afloat.
What remains to be seen is if the leadership of the NPP and the NPF can take them through the next few decades and more.
Polling in Manipur is being held in two phases – the first was on February 28 and the next is on March 3. Counting is scheduled on March 10. The term of the assembly ends on March 19.
