How the Delhi election result may impact Bihar Assembly polls later this year

On February 11, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) won a thumping majority in the Delhi Assembly election to retain power in the national capital.

AAP, in what was almost a repeat of the 2015 verdict, won 62 of the 70 constituencies. Its main challenger Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the remaining eight. The Congress failed to win any seat again.

While the result may have shown consolidation of AAP and Kejriwal’s grip over Delhi, the developments may also have ramifications over politics in other parts of the country.

The next state-level election is slated to happen in Bihar in October-November this year.

The state is currently being governed by the Janata Dal (United)-BJP alliance. After the 2019 Lok Sabha election, speculation was rife about unease between the alliance partners over who would be the dominate party in the arrangement.

However, Union Home Minister and then BJP national president Amit Shah had clarified in October that the election would be contested by the two parties together and under the leadership of JD(U) chief Nitish Kumar.

Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has been in power since 2005 — except for a 10-month period (in 2014-15) when his then party colleague Jitan Ram Manjhi had taken over.

Often described as the ‘Vikas Purush (development man) of Bihar’, Nitish Kumar is now facing anti-incumbency of the type that is commonly seen around leaders who stay in power for multiple tenures.

Additionally, his serial political ‘flip-flopping’ has irked some voters. This feeling was evident among some people when Moneycontrol interacted with them in state capital Patna in the run-up to the general election.

Also read — 5 key takeaways: ‘Kaam ki rajneeti’, consolation gains for BJP and more

However, the BJP has also been facing its own share of challenges. Since the 2019 general election, Assembly polls have been held in four states — Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Delhi.

In Maharashtra, it was contesting in an alliance with the Shiv Sena. While the two partners did manage to win majority of the seats, BJP’s performance was seen by many as under-par. It also ended up losing power in the state after the Sena formed government with rivals Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).

In Haryana, it failed to win a majority on its own and had to forge a post-poll alliance with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party (JJP).

The party lost Jharkhand to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) alliance.

With these and the latest outcome from Delhi, BJP may have lost its hard-bargaining power when it comes to seat-sharing negotiations in Bihar.

Listen in: Rajneeti podcast | Decoding Delhi poll results — insight into AAP's resounding win, BJP's gains and Congress' decimation

Incidentally, two key political parties from Bihar — JD(U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) — also contested the election. While JD(U) contested in an alliance with BJP, RJD was a Congress partner. Both parties drew a blank.

Reacting to the Delhi election result, Nitish Kumar said, "Janata malik hai (people are the masters)", with hands folded above his head and the ghost of a smile playing on his lips.

There are others who have expressed optimism over the result. JD(U) Secretary General KC Tyagi was quoted by The Telegraph as saying, “The Delhi results will impact the Bihar polls in a manner that the tested face that has credibility, acceptability and respectability — Nitish Kumar — with huge pro-incumbency will win”.