US, EU pressure on Iran could backfire and help conservatives further consolidate power

Protesters make fire and block the street during a protest over the death of Mahsa Amini, in downtown Tehran, on September 21. (AP Photo/File)

Iran’s Islamic regime is all set to overcome challenges to its survival, which began three months ago following the custodial death of a scantily veiled Kurdish woman. The regime is likely to be saved by the over-reaction of the United States of America and the European Union to the death of Mahsa Amini.

On December 14, the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) voted to remove Iran from the UN’s Commission on the Status of Women. The vote was the culmination of a US initiative. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, “is proud to have worked with ECOSOC partners to remove Iran from the Commission...whose values and mission, the regime makes a mockery of.”

On December 12, the EU imposed more sanctions on Iran for “the unacceptable repression of the ongoing protests and the worsening human rights situation” in the Islamic Republic. Iran is so heavily sanctioned that it is a wonder new sanctions were possible. But a meeting of ministers of the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council found ways to pressure the regime further.

Iranian women are the ‘Heroes of 2022’ in Time magazine’s choice of ‘Person of the Year’, announced this month. They came next to Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was picked for the top singular annual award.

For 43 years, the Islamic ruling establishment was united in dealing with any perceived threat to the system, which came into being following the return of Ayatollah Khomeini to Tehran on February 1, 1979, from exile in France. If there were any differences – as there have been on détente with the US or nuclear policy – these were resolved through consultations behind closed doors, except for Friday sermons in mosques which dwelt openly with such issues. However, as the 12-week-long protests glorifying Amini intensifies, there are signs of unprecedented confusion down the line among the ruling class.

Iran’s Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri in a bid to defuse the protests before they develop into an existential crisis, announced that the morality police — at whose hands Amini died — will be pulled off the streets. Women demonstrators have pointed out that this has so far not happened. Iran’s former President Mohammad Khatami praised the theme slogan of the demonstrators — ‘Women, Life, Liberty’ — as “beautiful”. Alireza Beheshti is the son of one of the architects of the Khomeini revolution, the widely revered Mohammad Beheshti. Hossein Khomeini is the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini. Ali Larijani is a long-time former Speaker of the Majlis (Parliament) and Javad Zarif, as Foreign Minister, successfully negotiated Iran’s nuclear deal with the big powers. They have all publicly advised the regime to pay heed to the demonstrators, and not to use violence against them.

Most embarrassing for the powers-that-be in Tehran and in the theocratic fountainhead of Qom has been direct criticism of the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, by his own sister, Badri Hosseini Khamenei, and her daughter, Farideh Moradkhani. The sister has been left alone by the regime, but her daughter was arrested and later jailed for three years by henchmen of the rulers, possibly to make an example of her.

At several echelons in the government and outside, there is broad recognition that demands for change in hijab restrictions and on other calls by protestors must be addressed with compassion. But hardliners fear that giving in on even mildly liberal demands will open the floodgates for what they consider moral degeneration of Iranian society.

The country is, therefore, on the horns of a dilemma. Moderate leaders such as Khatami, Larijani, and Zarif are advocating reforms lest the idea of the Islamic Republic — which they support and are part of — is threatened.

The West needs to exercise extreme caution in their moves against Iran. For the majority of Iranians, the Shah’s tyranny is a distant memory or told in horror stories passed on to youngsters by those who lived through that severe repression. Nor would any proud Iranian want to go back to Shah’s policies, when Iran was virtually reduced to a colony of the US. If a perception grows that the West is seeking regime change in Tehran exploiting the ongoing protests, it will have a counter-reaction and unify the people against the bad old ways, which led to the 1979 revolution in the first place. The overthrow of the Shah was made possible by the participation of masses of all persuasion — Communists, democracy activists, liberal Muslims, and non-Muslims.

The clerics in Qom could later hijack the revolution because Khomeini was emblematic of change. The record of the West in overtly and covertly fomenting unrest in Iran makes it a suspect instead of an ally for many Iranians who support the demands of today's protestors.

By looking for every possible way to punish Iran, as the US and the EU have done in recent days, they risk uniting Iranians against foreign meddling. It is true that slogans like ‘Death to the Dictator’ — a reference to Khamenei — have been heard at the protests. As is their wont, the media has picked up an odd poster on those lines because it catches viewer imagination: there is no evidence that ‘Death to the Dictator’ is a sentiment that is widespread among the protestors or with those Iranians who sympathise with demands for change.

In the end, the result of Western policies may be that Cuba’s history is repeated in Iran. The ill-thought-out US embargo against Cuba united the Cuban people behind Fidel Castro and helped shore up Communist rule on the island. For the clerics in Qom and the theocrats in Tehran, that will mean a longer lease in power and a proportionate dilution of the protests, with a few crumbs of concessions.