Lok Sabha Polls: BJP-SAD not to join hands, AAP-INC go separate ways; Punjab promises to be a tricky contest

Who will win maximum seats in Punjab?

The Bharatiya Janata Party and Shiromani Akali Dal have decided to go solo in Punjab Lok Sabha elections and talks of a patch up have failed. This development comes after INDIA bloc partners Aam Aadmi Party and Congress too decided to not forge a partnership in the state, while forming an alliance in other states.

This makes general elections 2024 in Punjab a quadrangular contest, similar to one witnessed in 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections and tricky for pollsters to predict.

SAD had first contested general elections with BJP together in 1998 and left the alliance in 2020 in the wake of farmers’ protests.

Punjab is a tricky turf to say the least, the Hindus, majority in other states, are a minority here; and Sikhs, a minority in rest of India are in majority here. In 2019 general elections, INC won 8 seats, BJP & SAD 2 each, AAP 1 seat. INC got 41%, SAD 28%, BJP 10% and AAP 8% vote share (rounded off).

All the parties are facing challenges of a different kind in the state.

AAP Still on Sticky Wicket

AAP is settling down as a ruling government with the completion of 2 years in office in February. Its flagship scheme of free power up to 300 units has been implemented since July 2022 and has benefited 88% consumers as claimed by the party. AAP also claims opening of 829 'aam aadmi clinics', giving more than 42,000 government jobs, receiving investments worth Rs 65,000 crore in the state, and opening of 'Schools of Eminence',

On the other hand, opposition alleges rampant drug menace, crumbling economy, misgovernance and unkept promises. Law and order is a concern with instances of political murders. Some of the fulfillment of guarantees is in process. While some voters are disillusioned, some want to give it more time as only two years have elapsed.

Kejriwal’s arrest has impacted the party's campaigning activities. Its lone MP Sushil Kumar Rinku along with an MLA joined the BJP recently.

Congress Fights Factionalism

The Congress party is still to come to terms with its massive loss in 2022. The top three at the helm - Charanjit Singh Channi, Navjot Singh Siddhu and Sunil Jakhar - are no longer in the fray. It has been hit by an exodus of leaders led by Jakhar last year.

Recently Patiala MP Preneet Kaur and Ludhiana MP Ravneet Bittu have left the party and joined the BJP. The state unit faces intense factionalism. The party is banking on fresh blood like Amarinder Warring but he lacks state-wide appeal.

The fact that AAP and Congress are trading barbs at each other in the state while an alliance is on in neighbouring Delhi is also sending a confusing message to the voters.

Akali Dal’s Lost Glory

The party is facing uncertainty after the loss of patriarch Prakash Singh Badal. It has successively finished at third spot in the last two assembly polls and lost a lot of rural support base. It's dilly dallying over leaving NDA in the aftermath of passage of Farm Bills and again recently flirting with BJP to make a gharwapsi to NDA is not seen charitably by the Sikh voters and farmer community.

Sukhbir Badal lacks the charisma to lead the party and the old guard doesn't back him. The party has lost the support of a section of even the panthic voters due to the sacrilege issue in 2015. It hopes to resurrect its core strength panth and peasantry and gain back followers.

BJP Needs a Clear Strategy

The BJP has realised that it cannot win maximum seats in the state if it restricts itself to its core constituency of Hindu voters. That’s why it has been on a shopping spree inducting many Sikh leaders like Amarinder Singh, Ravneet Bittu, Taranjit Sandhu, Manjinder Singh Sirsa, Manpreet Badal to woo the Sikh voters and neutralise its Hindu party / anti Sikh image.

However, its sangathan is weak, piggybacking on SAD for years, and is largely seen present in urban areas. Its nationalism and Hindutva template did not work here in 2019. Its strategy and direction remains unclear, consolidate Hindu votes or woo Sikh votes as well.

Who will win maximum seats in Punjab? Will BJP’s aggressive push yield results? Will Akalis be able to win over a section of its core vote base? Will AAP repeat its 2022 Vidhan Sabha streak riding on its performance? Or will Congress successfully exploit the farmers' protests and repeat its 2019 performance? Only time will tell.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.