Gujarat & Himachal Verdict | Divided opposition helps BJP but overdependence on Narendra Modi a worry

BJP retains power in Gujarat with a record breaking win. (Image: Reuters/File)

Gujarat, the bastion of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, has once again demonstrated the impossibility of stopping this juggernaut in their home state. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not only winning this election but also breaking several records in Gujarat's electoral past. The Congress is on an inescapable decline, but the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) showed an impressive debut performance.

In Himachal Pradesh, on the other hand, the Congress appears to be a comfortable winner. While the charisma of Modi and his relentless campaigns are the biggest assets for the BJP, the Himachal result indicates that the saffron party is becoming heavily dependent on the PM.

The BJP is electorally the most successful political party in India's history. Many refer to the BJP as an "election machine". The essential aspects of BJP politics are consistency and work ethic.

Be it a local body election or parliament, the BJP does not take any election casually. In the 2017 Gujarat assembly polls, the BJP secured just 99 seats. However, the consistent efforts of Modi and Shah enabled the party to surpass not only its previous record of 127 seats but also the record set by the Congress in 1985 when it won 149 seats in the assembly.

In contrast, despite performing well in the 2017 assembly elections, the Congress lost ground. The Congress failed to retain Hardik Patel , the face of the Patidar agitation and Alpesh Thakor, a leader representing other backward castes (OBC). Meanwhile, the AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal, entered Gujarat's political scene. The significant debut performance of Kejriwal's party in Gujarat is an important topic of political discussion, and it occurred at the expense of the declining popularity of the Congress. The division of votes between the Congress and the AAP ultimately benefited the BJP.

A divided opposition harms each other's electoral prospects and confuses undecided voters. The vote share of the parties further clarifies this equation. In 2017, the BJP received 49 percent vote share, the Congress 41 percent, and the AAP zero. This year, the BJP has received around 52 percent of votes, the Congress 27 percent and the AAP 12 percent. This indicates that the Congress has lost approximately 14 percent of the vote, with most of it getting transferred to the AAP. The floating voters have moved towards the BJP.

In Himachal Pradesh, the opposition vote did not split because the AAP did not put the state at the top of its list of priorities. The BJP lost around 18 seats, and the Congress gained an equal number. If there were a spilt of votes between the Congress and the AAP, the BJP would have won the state.

The outcome in Himachal Pradesh also reveals divisions within the BJP. The saffron party failed to provide the state with stable leadership. This circumstance bred discontent among the state's leadership, and the internecine conflict escalated. The party's inability to control the rebellion led to divisions, and many rebels fought and won independently.

In 2017, Gujarat experienced similar organisational difficulties, but Modi led the BJP to victory. The AAP defeated the BJP in Delhi municipal corporation elections yesterday. Today, the BJP was defeated in Himachal Pradesh. While Modi's popularity, credibility and success are unparalleled, the BJP cannot rely solely on one individual. The saffron party has failed in states where it lacked a strong local face and organisation or the undivided attention of Modi.

Though the PM led the campaign in Himachal Pradesh, his primary focus was on Gujarat. There is no alternative to preserving, cultivating and permitting the local talents to flourish. Future political survival for the BJP is contingent on local leadership. From 2017 to 2022, for instance, the BJP worked tirelessly to strengthen the party’s organisation in Gujarat. 

This election guarantees that the Modi phenomenon in Gujarat is irreversible. The people of Gujarat will never lose their affection for the PM. However, there is also a substantial anti-BJP vote. Had the opposition worked together and the Congress paid attention to the state, things might have turned out differently.

The results of the elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh indicate that there is still hope for the opposition. The AAP is attempting to displace the Congress by harming them, not the BJP. The opposition must now decide whether they wish to destroy each other or defeat the BJP. Should they consider the latter, unity is the only solution is unity.