Owaisi gains, Mahagathbandhan falters: How Seemanchal defied the 'M-Y' script in Bihar

Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM matched its 2020 tally of 5 Assembly seats in Bihar.

The results from Bihar's Seemanchal region have delivered one of the starkest messages of the 2025 Assembly election. Even in Muslim-dominated constituencies, the Mahagathbandhan's traditional M-Y arithmetic no longer holds. Of the region's 24 seats, the Opposition alliance has managed to win only five, ceding the bulk of the ground to the NDA and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM.

At the heart of the Mahagathbandhan's setback is the fragmentation of the Muslim vote. Instead of consolidating behind the RJD-Congress combine as in earlier elections, minority voters split significantly between the alliance and Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM, whose presence remained as disruptive as it was in 2020. The NDA, meanwhile, capitalised by sweeping up the Hindu vote across castes, allowing it to push past the demographic disadvantage that Seemanchal has traditionally posed.

The NDA secured 14 seats — 7 for the BJP, 5 for JD(U), and 2 for Chirag Paswan's LJP(RV). The Mahagathbandhan managed only 4 for the Congress and 1 for the RJD. With AIMIM retaining its previous tally of 5 seats, the Opposition's vote base was fractured enough to allow the NDA clear gains even in areas where Muslims form between 38% and nearly 68% of the population.

What makes the result more striking is that Seemanchal, comprising Kishanganj, Katihar, Araria and Purnia, is demographically tailored to favour the RJD-Congress alliance. Kishanganj has a Muslim population of 67.89%, followed by 44.47% in Katihar, 42.95% in Araria and 38.46% in Purnia. Yet, the region, which also accounted for the highest polling turnouts in seats in the state, delivered one of the Mahagathbandhan's weakest performances.

While the Congress had its worst strike rate statewide, Seemanchal was the only zone where it managed to hold some ground, helped partly by residual goodwill among Muslim voters for party leader Rahul Gandhi. However, that sympathy proved insufficient to counter the AIMIM's impact, which cut into the Mahagathbandhan's support across multiple seats.

The AIMIM won 5 seats in Bihar -- Bahadurganj and Kochadhaman in Kishanganj, Amour and Baisi in Purnia, and Jokihat in Araria -- exactly mirroring its 2020 tally. In Jokihat, the RJD's candidate finished fourth, behind AIMIM, JD(U) and even Jan Suraaj's Sarfaraz Alam, reflecting how deeply fragmented the minority vote had become. Sarfaraz, notably, is the brother of the RJD candidate and son of late strongman Taslimuddin.

Compared to 2020, when the NDA won 12 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 7 and AIMIM five, the trendline is clear. The AIMIM has held its ground, the NDA has gained, and the Mahagathbandhan, in what should have been its strongest bastion, has fallen further behind.

Put simply, Seemanchal told the story of the election that the Mahagathbandhan's strategy unraveled the moment the Muslim vote stopped consolidating.