Mandate Bihar: Owaisi's AIMIM eclipses Congress, leads in 5 seats against Congress' 4

Asaduddin Owaisi

As the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) inches towards the figure of 200, marking one of the grandest victories in electoral politics, one interesting facet that is emerging with the unfolding of the electoral outcome is how Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM has eclipsed the Congress with a lead in 5 seats, according to the latest reading on EC site. The party contested on 25 seats mostly in the Seemanchal region.

Preliminary reading of the outcome also suggests after extensive campaigning by the AIMIM candidate appears to have dented Congress prospects, giving JD(U) a decisive edge.

Comprising four districts - Araria, Katihar, Kishanganj and Purnea -the region has 24 Assembly seats and a large portion of the state's Muslim population. The AIMIM was, thus, pinning its hopes on this region to stay relevant in the state. As things stand at 1:10 pm, the party is leading in five seats, while the Mahagathbandhan has come down from seven to four.

Even though the RJD has managed leads only in 31 seats so far, its vote share (23%) in the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections went up slightly from the 22.6% it received in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, while the Congress’s vote share dropped from 9.4% in 2024 Lok Sabha elections to 7.9% in the current electoral contest.

The Mahagatbandan’s vote share in 2025 is 36.9%, nearly 3 percentage points down from the 40.1% received in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress and smaller parties such as the Vikassheel Insaan Party suffered relatively higher drops in vote shares.

It can be observed that Mahagathbandhan’s performance highlights a persistent structural issue - Congress continues to be the weaker link in the alliance. In the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections, Congress contested 70 seats but won only 19, while the RJD and Left parties outperformed expectations. CPI(ML) (Liberation) won 12 of the 19 seats it contested, and the Left collectively bagged 16 of 29, demonstrating a far higher strike rate than the Congress. The Mahagathbandhan then ended with 110 seats, trailing the NDA’s 125.

This election appears to mirror that trend. Congress is contesting 61 seats but is leading in only 14, underlining the party’s inability to emerge as a decisive force within the alliance.