Masterstroke or biting the bullet? The calculation behind BJP's surprise decision on caste census

Prime Minister Narendra Modi chaired a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs in New Delhi on Wednesday. (PTI)

The decision by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs (CCPA) on Wednesday to include caste data in the next population Census has taken many by surprise. The decision was arrived at by the CCPA which met in the national capital last evening under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The timing of the decision, coming as the nation eagerly awaits India's retribution of the ghastly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam, comes across as a deliberate attempt by the government to show business as usual. The decision is also a bid to portray that the Modi government shall not allow the reforms process to be derailed and that India remains united and strong regardless of Pakistan's attempts at destabilisation.

What BJP hopes to accomplish with caste census

That said, there are several political takeaways that the BJP can derive out of this calculated decision. Remember, the Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, had turned the demand for a pan-India caste census into a national issue, the ramifications of which were felt by the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as well.

With one fell swoop, the Centre's decision to include caste data in the next population Census has taken the sting out of Congress MP Rahul Gandhi's attack against the PM Modi-led government while also taking away the ownership of the what the grand old party had hoped to turn into a major political plank to beat the BJP with.

Moreover, the decision also appears to be guided by the BJP's intent to nullify the Opposition's efforts to hinder a broader Hindu consolidation. The 2024 general elections showed a concerted attempt by the Opposition to splinter the coalition of the Other Backward Classes and upper castes that acted as the driving force behind the BJP's successive victories at the Centre and in states over the past decade.

Opposition parties, while reviving the cause of OBC-Dalit-Muslim unity saw some groups moving towards the Mandal pillar, a factor that dented BJP the most in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, and deprived it of forming a government on its own at the Centre for the first time in three elections.

BJP steals the march over Opposition

While only elections will reveal if the BJP's attempt to arrest the drift of its loyal voter base, the BJP has claimed that by taking the initiative, the BJP has deprived the Congress and other caste-based Opposition parties of their main poll plank. With PM Modi having successfully positioned himself as the champion of OBCs, the BJP hopes that this decision will trigger a polarization of small castes against parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Samajwadi Party which are identified with Yadavs, the dominant OBC caste.

And while the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi have rushed to claim credit for the Centre's decision, the BJP is confident that the claims won't stick.

The primary pointer behind this understanding within the BJP is that it has delivered what he Congress only talked about. And it has facts to show that its calculation may not be entirely off the mark.

Under continued pressure from UPA allies, the Manmohan Singh government set up a Group of Ministers under then Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee to examine the issue of caste census. Based on the GoM’s recommendations, the Union Cabinet decided in September 2010 on a separate Socio Economic Caste Census (SECC). Carried out a cost of a staggering Rs 4,900 crore, the SECC data was never made public. Addressing a press conference after the women’s reservation Bill was passed in Parliament in September 2023, Rahul Gandhi conceded that the UPA government should have released the data of the SECC.

Caste Matters: What we know so far

The last time that caste data was published as part of the national Census was in 1931. The data was extrapolated by the Mandal Commission in the 1970s that showed a detailed break-up of the population based on caste and religion.

As per the data, Dalits and Tribals constituted 22.6 percent of the population with Scheduled Castes at 15.1 percent and Scheduled Tribe at 7.5 percent. The OBCs, on the other hand, comprised 52.4 percent with Hindus constituting a majority at 43.7 percent and Other Religions at 8.7 percent.

Upper Castes were estimated to be 17.6 percent which includes Brahmins (5.5 percent), Rajputs (3.9 percent) and Others at 8.2 percent. Religious minorities, on the other hand, comprised 16.2 percent, including Muslims at 11.2 percent and Others at 5 percent.

So far, Bihar, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have conducted their own exercises to determine the current caste break-up in the form of statewide caste surveys.