Contrasting fortunes of RJD & LJP: Vote share almost intact but wild swing in seat tally — here’s why

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav (L) and LJP (RV)'s Chirag Paswan

In the space of two elections, the political fortunes of Tejashwi Yadav's RJD and Chirag Paswan's LJP (RV) witnessed a wild swing. While RJD saw a steep slide in its seat tally compared to 2020, Chirag's LJP recorded a dramatic surge. Interestingly, what did not change much was the vote share of both the parties.

Compared to the 2020 election, the vote shares of both RJD and LJP (RV) remained more or less intact. The RJD's vote share dipped by a mere 0.11 percentage point this year while the LJP(RV)'s share declined by a paltry 0.69%.

Despite this, RJD saw its seat share dwindle to just 25 in 2025 from 75 in 2020 while Chirag's party saw its seat share rise to 19 from just 1 in the previous election.

The ironic mismatch between vote share and the final seat tally is quite common in Indian politics. This is why RJD emerged as the biggest loser of the election despite posting the best vote share among all the parties.

But why didn't votes translate into seats in RJD's case and how did LJP manage just six seats shy of RJD despite polling only 5% of the votes?

In RJD's case, it appears the party's core vote base, the Muslim-Yadav (MY) combine, remained intact in the election across all 143 seats it contested.

An analysis of the results show that Tejashwi's party was the runner-up in 110 seats out of the 143 it contested. It won 25. Which means there were only eight seats where RJD wasn't the runner-up.

This suggests that while RJD was able to corner a large number of votes across the state, it could not find a wider support base beyond the Muslims and Yadavs to dislodge the NDA candidates.

Moreover, an analysis by CNN-News18 shows that the median winning vote share surged to 47.8 per cent in 2025, the highest in Bihar since the 1977 election. This meant that candidates across constituencies needed a wider consolidated base to win. This hurt both the RJD and its broader Mahagathbandhan coalition.

Also, RJD polled more votes than both BJP and JD(U) — who won more seats — because it fielded candidates in more seats compared to both the parties. Both BJP and JD(U) contested 101 seats each.

Conversely, in LJP(RV)'s case, it's a matter of less is more. In 2020, Chirag wasn't part of NDA and fielded candidates across 135 seats. Without the banner of a bigger alliance and wider caste support base, LJP(RV) only managed to win 1 seat with a vote share of 5.66%.

This time, Paswan benefited from contesting the elections under NDA. The seat selection was also based on a focused and targeted strategy prioritising winnability over wider presence.

Thus, contesting a few targeted seats, after striking a hard baragain with allies, helped Chirag maximise his impact in the election. In a way, he pulled off a repeat of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, when the young leader scooped up all 5 parliamentary seats his party contested.