Battle for Bihar: 121 seats, 5 'friendly fights' - who holds the edge and what's at stake?

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and others show their ink marked fingers after casting votes during the first phase of Bihar Assembly elections. (PTI)

Polling is underway in 121 of Bihar’s 243 Assembly seats, marking the first phase of a two-stage election that will set the tone for one of the state’s most closely fought contests in years. The outcome from these seats will shape the fortunes of the Nitish Kumar-led NDA, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, and the new entrant Jan Suraaj helmed by strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor.

A total of 3.75 crore voters, including 10.7 lakh first-time voters, will decide the fate of 1,314 candidates across 18 districts, spanning Seemanchal, Kosi, Magadh and Tirhut. This is largely central Bihar, where the NDA and Mahagathbandhan were locked in a near-dead heat in 2020. Back then, the Mahagathbandhan won 61 of these 121 seats, narrowly ahead of the NDA’s 59, with both alliances posting almost identical vote shares.

However, the 2024 Lok Sabha election shifted the momentum, with the NDA leading in 95 of these Assembly segments and the Mahagathbandhan in 25. Which coalition captures early momentum in this phase could carry a psychological advantage into Phase 2.

This time, the alliances themselves look different. Chirag Paswan's LJP (RV) and Upendra Kushwaha's RLM are now with the NDA, while Mukesh Sahani's VIP has moved to the Mahagathbandhan -- changes that could reshape vote transfers on several seats.

In the first phase, JDU is contesting 57 seats, BJP and other NDA allies in 6 seats. Within the Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, RJD is in fray in more than 70 seats, the Congress in 24 and CPI-ML 14.

Many Phase-1 constituencies were among the closest in 2020, making them especially turnout-sensitive. Hilsa saw the closest result in the state, with RJD’s Shubham Saurav defeating JD(U)’s Krishna Murari Sharan (Nishant) by just 12 votes. Barbigha was decided by 113 votes, and Bakhri (SC) by 777.

Ramgarh in Kaimur was won by only 189 votes, while Parbatta was decided by under 1,000 votes, where shifts among Koeri, Yadav and EBC voters proved decisive. With turnout likely influenced by the post-Chhath return of migrant workers, and a widening women-versus-youth voting divide, even a few hundred votes could flip results again.

The voter turnout in these 121 seats in the 2020 elections was 55.81%.

Adding to the complexity are five seats today where the Mahagathbandhan itself has rival candidates in the fray, after failing to resolve seat-sharing in eleven constituencies, an unusual situation the alliance has attempted to downplay as “friendly fights.”

The day also features high-profile contests. In Raghopur, the Mahagathbandhan’s CM face Tejashwi Yadav faces BJP’s Satish Kumar Yadav, with challengers from Jan Suraaj and Tej Pratap Yadav’s Janshakti Janta Dal also in the mix.

Tej Pratap Yadav, too, is defending his relevance in a changed political landscape. The BJP is testing fresh appeal through Maithili Thakur, the 25-year-old folk singer contesting from Darbhanga, who could become the youngest MLA in the state if she wins.

Meanwhile, Mokama is voting under intense scrutiny following the murder of Jan Suraaj supporter and local strongman Dularchand Yadav and the subsequent arrest of JD(U) candidate Anant Singh. He now faces the RJD’s Veena Devi, wife of former MP Surajbhan Singh, extending a decades-old political duel into the present campaign.

With razor-thin margins from 2020, new alliance math, and multiple local flashpoints, Phase 1 is not just the first half of an election. It may be the one that decides which way Bihar tilts.