After Ajit Pawar’s sudden demise, Fadnavis faces a tougher Mahayuti; here’s why

Ajit’s sudden passing could leave the BJP short of leverage against Shinde (Image: PTI)

• Ajit Pawar dies in a plane crash, impacting Maharashtra's political landscape
• Ajit’s sudden passing could leave the BJP short of leverage against Shinde
• Ajit Pawar's absence may prompt NCP faction merger, challenging BJP's dominance

Did our AI summary help?

The sudden and tragic death of NCP president and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar is expected to significantly impact Maharashtra’s political landscape, which has remained turbulent since 2019 after the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray split.

His demise is also seen as a setback for chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, who shared a strong working relationship with the NCP leader.

On the demise of the deputy CM, Fadnavis said he had lost a “good friend” while also describing the tragic plane crash which led to his death as “unbelievable”.

Ajit Pawar’s death has left a void that will never be filled, he said. “After working closely together, it is unbelievable that he is no more,” Fadnavis said.

Pawar, 66, and four other persons were killed after an aircraft carrying them crashed in Maharashtra’s Pune district on Wednesday morning. The incident occurred when the plane carrying Pawar and others landed near Baramati.

The Mahayuti factor

The unexpected development is likely to significantly affect the ruling Mahayuti coalition as well as the internal dynamics of the NCP.

Fadnavis was seen as depending on Ajit Pawar to rein in Shiv Sena president and deputy CM Eknath Shinde, a known hard bargainer within the alliance.

Ajit’s sudden passing could leave the BJP short of leverage against Shinde, while also reopening the door to a merger between the NCP factions led by Ajit Pawar and his uncle Sharad Pawar -- an outcome that could challenge the BJP’s political supremacy in Maharashtra.

“Compared to Eknath Shinde, Ajit dada was a much less troublesome ally,” a senior BJP minister told Hindustan Times.

“He was cooperative and well aware of his limitations. When it came to running the government, he was a strict administrator. Fadnavis will miss it. Now, Shinde could become a little stronger in the government.”

Pawar played a crucial role in the BJP’s efforts to breach Sharad Pawar’s western Maharashtra stronghold. His entry into the Mahayuti contributed to the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s setback in the 2024 assembly polls. Backed by influence in the cooperative movement and a strong base among the Maratha community, he proved to be a valuable asset for the ruling alliance.

“While we have several people from the cooperative sector with us now, Shinde remains a popular Maratha leader. With Ajit no more in the picture, he could use the situation to his advantage,” the BJP minister stated.

The 2019 dawn swearing-in of Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar symbolised Maharashtra’s era of political flux. Ajit soon returned to the MVA under Sharad Pawar, enabling the Uddhav Thackeray-led government.

While Fadnavis later described the episode as a mistake, Ajit remained central to his political calculations. Ajit’s break with the NCP in 2023 to join the Shinde-led Mahayuti once again reshaped the state’s power dynamics.

“Ajit Pawar joining NDA was entirely a Fadnavis move. The BJP’s central leadership was not so pleased about it. In fact, he joined the NDA a few days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi called him out. The BJP leadership was always keen to have Sharad Pawar in their camp,” a BJP source from Maharashtra told The Indian Express.

Following the Mahayuti’s landslide in the November 2024 polls, in which the BJP won 132 seats compared to the Shinde Sena’s 57 and Ajit Pawar’s NCP’s 41, Eknath Shinde attempted to negotiate his return as chief minister. The effort was ultimately checked by Fadnavis, aided by Ajit Pawar.