Hold Gujarat State Petronet; target of Rs 296: Prabhudas Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher recommended hold rating on Gujarat State Petronet with a target price of Rs 296 in its research report dated January 22, 2026.

Broker Research

January 23, 2026 / 11:51 IST

hold

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Gujarat State Petronet

Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS) reported a 1.0mmscmd QoQ decline in transmission volume to 27.5mmscmd in Q3FY26 (vs. 28.5mmscmd in Q2FY26), driven by a sharp 51.8% QoQ drop in power segment volume. This was partly offset by a 5.8% and 2.1% QoQ increase in refinery/petrochem and other segment volume, respectively. EBITDA declined 4.4% QoQ to Rs1.7bn (PLe: Rs1.7bn; BBGe: Rs1.8bn), due to higher other expenses. PAT fell 70.1% QoQ to Rs1.1bn, reflecting lower other income. On YoY basis, PAT declined 15.7% due to lower EBITDA. For 9MFY26, EBITDA/PAT declined 21.2%/13.3% YoY to Rs5.4bn/Rs6.4bn.

Outlook

We reiterate our ‘HOLD’ rating, as volume recovery remains slower than anticipated. Investments in Gujarat Gas (54.2% stake) and Sabarmati Gas (27.5% stake) at a 25% holding discount, provide a valuation of Rs204. We continue to value the core business at 10x Dec’27E adj EPS, implying a value of Rs92.5/share, leading to a combined TP of Rs296 (earlier: Rs322).

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