US Supreme Court likely to rule on legality of Trump tariffs today. Here's how Indian markets could react to the verdict

Stock Market Today News: Sensex, Nifty see profit booking in trade.

The US Supreme Court is likely to deliver its verdict around 8.30 pm IST on petitions challenging the legality of the trade tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration on key trading partners.

The court did not issue a ruling last Friday, January 9, on cases questioning whether the president exceeded his authority while imposing the global tariff measures.

Market participants said Indian equities could see a short-term relief rally if the court strikes down the tariffs, though the longer-term impact is expected to be limited.

Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president (research) at Religare Broking Ltd, said a ruling against the tariffs could ease uncertainty but may not change the broader outlook.

"If the Court strikes down the tariffs as exceeding presidential authority, it could reduce trade policy uncertainty and provide a short-term uplift in risk appetite and FII flows into Indian equities, particularly export-linked and broader cyclicals. However, the longer-term impact may be muted, as the administration retains alternative avenues to impose levies and underlying trade tensions persist, meaning tariff risk isn’t fully eliminated. Select sectors, especially export-oriented midcaps, could see relief, but core earnings and domestic macro drivers will continue to dominate market direction," Mishra said.

On April 2 last year, Trump imposed tariffs ranging between 10-50 percent on most major economies. The move was challenged in court on the grounds that it exceeded presidential authority under existing US laws.

Dr Ravi Singh, chief research officer at Master Capital Services Ltd, said a ruling against the tariffs could improve sentiment but may not lead to a sustained rally.

"The Indian stock market might benefit initially from a ruling against Trump's tariff policies as it would reduce quite a bit of global uncertainty around trade policies. Any move that signals an ease in trade tensions is generally favoured by markets and a decision of this kind could increase global risk appetite and encourage FII inflows. Indian equities, which have been under pressure due to concerns over higher tariffs, export delays and capital outflows, may see a relief rally because of improved sentiment. However, while a rally is possible, it may not automatically translate into a sustained bull run. Investors are still going to keep an eye on global indicators like US interest rate expectations, oil prices, geopolitical risks and domestic earnings growth," Singh said.

The US has already imposed tariffs of up to 50 percent on India, among the highest globally, including a 25 percent levy linked to India’s purchases of Russian energy.

Nitant Darekar, research analyst at Bonanza, said the ruling was unlikely to materially alter market trends.

"Today's US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Trump's tariffs — imposed under IEEPA without Congressional approval — offers limited relief for Indian markets. While a decision nullifying these 10–50 percent duties on Indian goods could spark mild sentimental positivity, easing FII outflows and rupee pressure, experts remain skeptical of a sustained rally in Nifty 50. Tariffs align with Trump's core strategy, with alternative legal routes likely. Markets priced in minimal policy shifts beforehand; corporate earnings and global cues dominate. Any short-term bounce may fade without broader trade thaw," Darekar said.

Meanwhile, Trump also said any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25 percent tariff on all trade with the United States.

"Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25 per cent on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Among Iran’s major trading partners are China, Turkey, India, the UAE, Pakistan and Armenia.

The announcement could impact India, which has been among Iran’s five largest trading partners in recent years.

Meanwhile, the equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Wednesday, extending their previous day's losses, due to weakness in IT, consumption, and select banking blue-chip stocks amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

The Sensex dropped 244.98 points, or 0.29 percent to settle at 83,382.71. During the day, it fell 442.49 points or 0.52 percent to 83,185.20. The Nifty declined 66.70 points, or 0.26 percent to 25,665.60.

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