Trading Plan: Can Nifty 50 hold Thursday’s low, Bank Nifty extend winning streak for 13th consecutive session?

Nifty Trading Plan for September 19

Given the consistent rally, the Nifty 50 has approached a long falling trendline, which poses a hurdle in the 25,450–25,000 zone. If the index manages to close and sustain above this level in the upcoming sessions, a rally toward the June high of 25,670 is possible. Until then, consolidation may be seen, with immediate support at 25,330–25,250, said experts who advised a buy-on-dips strategy. Meanwhile, the 55,600 level is expected to be crucial for further direction in the Bank Nifty. Sustaining above it can drive the index toward 56,160 (August high), and then 56,500–56,600. However, below this level, 55,500–54,900 can act as support.

On September 18, the Nifty 50 advanced 93 points to 25,424, while the Bank Nifty gained 234 points to 55,727, despite slightly negative market breadth. A total of 1,436 shares declined compared to 1,340 rising shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty extended its bullish momentum as dips were consistently bought, with the index forming higher lows for three consecutive weeks, reinforcing a robust structure. Thursday’s volatility saw early gains fade, but late-hour buying from support zones restored strength. Sustaining above the breakout of its previous swing high confirms the shift of resistance into support, making corrective declines opportunities for accumulation.

In the derivatives segment, strong Put open interest at the 25,300 strike defines a solid base, while 25,500 stands as the key hurdle. A decisive move above 25,500 could unlock a rally toward 26,000, with the Put-Call Ratio holding above 1, reinforcing the bullish bias and keeping buy-on-dips as the preferred strategy.

Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,700, 25,900

Key Support: 25,300, 25,200, 25,100

Strategy: Traders may consider a Bull Put Spread strategy for the September 23rd expiry by selling one lot of 25,700 PE at Rs 244 and buying one lot of 25,500 PE at Rs 95. This setup is designed to capitalize on potential range-bound momentum.

Stop Loss: Hold the strategy until expiry with the maximum Mark-to-Market (MTM) loss capped at Rs 3,836.

Target: Hold the strategy until expiry to achieve a maximum profit of Rs 11,164, or consider booking profits once the MTM gains exceed Rs 5,000.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Nifty demonstrated strong bullish momentum this week. After a quiet start on Monday, Tuesday's powerful candle broke above the August 21 swing high of 25,154 and a declining trendline, signaling a positive shift. In the latest session, Nifty gapped up, faced some profit-booking from 25,449 down to 25,330 (day’s low), but found support and rebounded, showcasing its underlying strength.

The daily candle formed a Hanging Man pattern, suggesting that a break below 25,329 could lead to consolidation or profit-booking. The price is currently trading above all key EMAs, supported by a bullish crossover. The weekly RSI has broken out of a double bottom pattern, and the daily RSI and MACD are in bullish territory. Nifty has also filled the bearish gap from July 11, 2025, and this upward trend is likely to continue, with the potential for new highs.

Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,670, 25,850

Key Support: 25,220, 25,080, 24,950

Strategy: The overall bias is positive. Traders can look to buy on dips around 25,220 or 25,000. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as Nifty holds above the strong support at 24,750.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

The Nifty 50, on the daily chart, has formed a small bearish-bodied candlestick with a long lower wick and a slight upper wick, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels despite some profit-booking near the highs. A sustained move above the 25,650 level could open the doors for further upside toward the 25,800–26,000 range. Overall, a ‘buy-on-dips’ strategy may be considered as long as the index sustains above the 25,200 mark. Traders are advised to maintain strict stop-loss levels and remain cautious.

Key Resistance: 25,500, 25,650

Key Support: 25,300, 25,200

Strategy: Buy Nifty Futures on dips near 25,400, with a stop-loss of 25,300 on a closing basis, targeting 25,800–26,000 levels.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivative Research Analyst at Samco Securities

Nifty Bank sustained its bullish momentum, holding above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement, with higher-low formations underscoring strong buyer conviction. Repeated absorption of dips signals resilience, with both PSU and private banks showing strong reversals, adding breadth to the rally. The 55,300–55,400 zone has emerged as a dependable support where resistance has flipped into demand.

On the derivatives front, heavy Put open interest at 55,000 and fresh Put writings near 55,300 highlight limited downside risk, while significant Call open interest at 56,000 sets the key ceiling. The Put-Call Ratio at 1.10 reflects sustained optimism. A decisive breakout above 56,000 could fuel momentum toward 56,500–57,000.

Key Resistance: 55,900, 56,200, 56,300

Key Support: 55,600, 55,400, 55,200

Strategy: Traders can consider buying Nifty Bank September Futures if the price crosses above 55,920–55,950, setting a stop-loss below 55,720. Profit-taking can be considered once the index reaches 56,220–56,300.

Jay Mehta, Technical Research at JM Financial Services

Bank Nifty has shown tremendous strength over the past 5–6 sessions with positive volume build-up and long-bodied candles. The price found solid support at the 200 EMA around 53,600 on September 3 and has since rallied to 55,835, reclaiming its position above all key EMAs. While daily momentum indicators like the RSI and MACD support this bullish bias, a clear positive signal from weekly indicators is still pending.

Strong resistance is anticipated in the 56,000–56,200 range. The converging EMAs around 54,800 will act as a strong support level. The candle formed a Hanging Man pattern, and a break below 55,490 could trigger consolidation or profit-booking down to 55,000. Currently, the high is aligned with the upper Bollinger Bands, which have a flat slope and may act as resistance. The hourly RSI is beginning to cool off from its overbought state.

Key Resistance: 55,900, 56,200, 56,300

Key Support: 55,490, 55,300, 55,000

Strategy: The bullish bias remains intact as long as Bank Nifty stays above 54,300. Traders could consider buying on dips around 55,000 or 54,800, or initiating new long positions on a confirmed breakout above 56,200.

Hardik Matalia, Derivative Analyst at Choice Broking

On the daily chart, the Bank Nifty has formed a bearish-bodied candlestick with a long lower wick and a slight upper wick, indicating buying interest from lower levels despite some profit-booking at higher zones. Overall, a ‘buy-on-dips’ strategy can be considered as long as the index holds above the 55,000 level. Traders are advised to adopt strict stop-losses and remain cautious amid the ongoing volatility.

Key Resistance: 55,800, 56,000

Key Support: 55,500, 55,300

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures on dips near 55,500 levels, with a stop-loss of 55,000 on a closing basis, targeting 56,500–56,800 levels.

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