Technical View: Strong closing above 26,000 key for Nifty bulls to march toward record high, Bank Nifty up 6.5% in October series

Nifty outlook for October 29

The Nifty 50 attempted to stay above the psychological 26,000 mark for another session but failed to do so, finishing the monthly F&O expiry day with a moderate loss after a volatile session on October 28. However, the overall trend remains in favour of the bulls, supported by strong technical and momentum indicators.

Hence, experts expect the index to gradually march toward its record high of 26,277 in the upcoming sessions once it starts trading above 26,000. Until then, consolidation and rangebound trading may continue, with immediate support at 25,850–25,800. Below this zone, 25,700 is seen as the key support level.

The Nifty 50 climbed above 26,000 to hit an intraday high of 26,042 but could not sustain those early gains, remaining under pressure for most of the session. The index touched a day’s low of 25,810 before showing some recovery in the last hour of trade and closing at 25,936, down 64 points.

The index formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the daily charts, indicating indecision among bulls and bears. Meanwhile, it continued to trade above key moving averages, which are trending northward—keeping the broader trend positive. The RSI has cooled down slightly but remains above the 70 zone, suggesting that momentum has eased somewhat and the index is digesting its recent gains rather than reversing its trend.

“The market remained highly volatile, but the overall chart setup on the daily timeframe remains intact, with the Nifty trading well above the 21 EMA, keeping the bullish bias intact,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

In the short term, the index may witness a decent rally as momentum picks up above 26,000. On the higher side, resistance is seen at 26,300, while support is placed at 25,850, according to him.

For the October series, the index gained 5.4 percent and formed a long bullish candle on the monthly charts.

Weekly options data suggested that the 26,000 level is expected to be crucial for the Nifty’s further upward journey, with immediate support at 25,800.

The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 26,500 and 26,200 strikes, with the highest Call writing at the 26,000, 26,200, and 26,500 strikes. On the other hand, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 26,000 and 25,400 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 25,400, 25,500, and 26,000 strikes.

The Bank Nifty performed better than the benchmark index, rising 100 points to 58,214, and formed a bullish candle with a lower shadow on the daily timeframe—indicating a positive trend with buying interest at lower levels.

Over the past three sessions, the index has been trading within a narrow range, struggling to decisively break and close above the 58,200–58,300 zone, which now acts as an immediate resistance area.

From an indicator perspective, the RSI has cooled off from 76.64 to 72.88, suggesting that the index is taking a breather after an overbought phase, while the broader trend remains positive. Prices continue to trade comfortably above key moving averages, reflecting the underlying strength of the trend. The MACD also remains well above the zero and signal lines, confirming that the bullish undertone is still intact.

“The 58,200–58,300 zone will act as an immediate resistance for the index. If the index manages to give a follow-through move above 58,300, the pullback can continue further toward the 58,800 level,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, adding that on the downside, the 57,600–57,500 zone will act as a crucial support for the index.

For the October series, the Bank Nifty soared 3,578 points, or 6.5 percent, and formed a long bullish candle on the monthly scale with a higher high–higher low formation.

Meanwhile, the India VIX—the fear index—attempted to move closer to the 13 zone but failed and closed at 11.95, up 0.8 percent. Until it sustains above the 13 zone on a closing basis, the bulls are unlikely to be at risk.